If you can only spare one window this weekend, make it Saturday Evening (Avg. Game Rank 6.8). All four games kick at 6:30 PM: Kentucky at Oklahoma, Notre Dame at BYU, Wisconsin at UCLA and Oklahoma State at Houston. Saturday Early (Avg. Game Rank 7.2) is a close second, and it’s where you’ll find the Game of the Week, Florida at Texas at 11:00 AM.

A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this guide comes from The Precedent Ratings, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. The number in front of each game is its Game Rank, which orders the weekend’s games using both teams’ ratings. In each window, a lower Avg. Game Rank means a stronger slate. Only FBS-vs-FBS games are included, and all kickoff times are Central.

Game of the Week

Florida (#15) at Texas (#3), Texas -10.5, over/under 51.5, Saturday 11:00 AM, ABC

The weekend’s top game by Game Rank puts the third-rated team in the country against the 15th. The AP sees a wider gap, with Texas seventh and Florida unranked. The two have no common opponents yet. Texas comes in off a loss and Florida has dropped two in a row, and the Gators may be without starting quarterback Aaron Philo, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. If he can’t go, Florida would turn to a quarterback making his first career start.

Purdue has won two in a row while Washington has lost three straight, and both played Minnesota: Purdue won 41-13, Washington lost 27-24. Washington may also be without starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who is questionable with a rib injury and not expected to play, and starting linebacker Xe’ree Alexander is out with a high-ankle sprain. Memphis brings a three-game win streak to Tulane. Appalachian State, on a two-game skid, has a quarterback question of its own, with Malachi Singleton questionable with an ankle injury, and faces James Madison next week.

Two of the weekend’s hottest teams meet in Bloomington: Indiana has won six in a row and Ohio State four. Ohio State will be short-handed, with running back Ja’Kobi Jackson, who has started recent games, among several players ruled out. Mississippi State and LSU both come in off a loss, and Mississippi State starting quarterback Kamario Taylor is questionable with a foot injury. Cincinnati and West Virginia share a common opponent in Arizona, which beat Cincinnati 34-7 and West Virginia 52-31. West Virginia has lost three straight, and Cincinnati faces Texas Tech next week.

Georgia, now No. 1 in the AP poll after a 20-17 win at Alabama, has won six straight. The Bulldogs will be without running back Chauncey Bowens, their touchdown leader, while Auburn is missing sack leader Xavier Atkins to a suspension. Both beat Vanderbilt: Georgia 38-14, Auburn 21-15. Alabama, coming off that loss to Georgia, visits a Tennessee team that has won two in a row, and Tennessee starting quarterback Faizon Brandon is questionable with a shoulder injury; a backup is reportedly set to start. Missouri has won two straight and beat Florida 45-17, the same Florida team that beat Ole Miss 52-28. Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons, listed as probable, returns to Oxford, where he used to play. UNLV and Air Force each carry three-game win streaks, and both played North Dakota State: UNLV won 13-7, Air Force lost 38-32.

Notre Dame and BYU are the only unbeaten teams meeting this weekend, and Notre Dame’s six-game win streak ties for the longest in the country. BYU will play without starting running back LJ Martin, out with an ankle injury. Kentucky has won four in a row, but leading rusher CJ Baxter is questionable; Oklahoma’s key offensive tackle Michael Fasusi is also questionable and nearing a return. UCLA has won five straight, including a 17-15 win at Oregon, but reportedly lost starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to a season-ending knee injury in that game. Wisconsin arrives with four straight wins. Oklahoma State (four straight) and Houston (three straight) both beat UCF, Oklahoma State 42-28 and Houston 27-17.

Nebraska and Oregon both come in off a loss. Oregon is still without starting quarterback Dante Moore, out with a concussion. Nebraska is without starting safety Jamir Conn. Utah has won five in a row while Colorado has lost three straight, and Utah faces Houston next week. Wake Forest brings a three-game win streak to California.

By the Numbers

• Unbeaten: 9 teams are still perfect, and only one game matches two of them: Notre Dame at BYU.

• Biggest line: Miami (FL) -21.5 against Florida State.

• Closest lines: three games at 1.5 points: UNLV -1.5 at Air Force, West Virginia -1.5 against Cincinnati, and Appalachian State -1.5 at Coastal Carolina.

• Highest total: 63.5, Cincinnati at West Virginia.

• Lowest total: 40.5, Northern Illinois at Wyoming.

• Longest win streaks: James Madison, Indiana, Georgia and Notre Dame have each won six in a row. None of them play each other; Indiana hosts Ohio State (four straight), and Notre Dame visits BYU (five straight).

Sleeper of the Week

UNLV (#46) at Air Force (#44), UNLV -1.5, over/under 48.5, Saturday 2:30 PM, CBSSN

Two teams two spots apart in the ratings, both on three-game win streaks, and neither in the AP poll. The road team is a slim favorite in one of the weekend’s three closest lines. They also share a common opponent: UNLV beat North Dakota State 13-7, while Air Force lost to North Dakota State 38-32.

Storyline to Watch

Notre Dame (#23) at BYU (#9), Notre Dame -10.5, over/under 46.5, Saturday 6:30 PM, ABC

The weekend’s only meeting of unbeatens comes with a split verdict. The AP has Notre Dame second and BYU eighth, but The Precedent Ratings flip it, with BYU ninth and Notre Dame 23rd. Even so, Notre Dame is a 10.5-point road favorite. Notre Dame’s six-game win streak ties for the longest in the country, BYU has won five straight, and BYU will be without starting running back LJ Martin.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this article comes from The Precedent Ratings, which count each team’s wins, losses and its opponents’ records, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. Teams with the same rating share a rank. Statistics use FBS-vs-FBS games only, and early in the season many teams are still tied, so read the lower ranks loosely.

Weekend Recap

Twenty-seven of the weekend’s 58 games were decided by eight points or fewer. That is 47 percent, the highest share of any week this season; the average entering the weekend was 35 percent. Favorites lost 19 of those 58 games outright, and six of them were teams the AP had ranked going in.

By the numbers

• 58 games played

• Home teams won 32 of 58 (55 percent), against a season average of 65 percent

• 27 one-score games

• 51.1 points per game, combined

• 9 unbeaten teams remain, down from 15 a week ago

• 3 teams are still winless

• 15 games were won by the team trailing at halftime, and 13 by the team trailing entering the fourth quarter

Oklahoma 27, Texas 24

Texas led 17-7 at halftime and 17-10 after three quarters, and Oklahoma outscored it 17-7 in the fourth. Oklahoma, a 7.5-point underdog, scored on a blocked punt and on Peyton Bowen’s 42-yard interception return. Arch Manning threw for 260 yards and three touchdowns but was intercepted twice in the fourth quarter. Bowen’s return was one of those interceptions, and the other set up Tate Sandell’s 47-yard field goal as time expired. Manning said afterward that Texas “beat ourselves.” Texas fell from #1 to #3 in The Precedent Ratings and from #1 to #7 in the AP Poll. Oklahoma moved from #45 to #21.

Georgia 20, Alabama 17

EJ Crowell’s 1-yard touchdown just before halftime put Alabama ahead 14-10. Georgia tied it 17-17 in the third quarter, held Alabama to three points after halftime, and won on Peyton Woodring’s 23-yard field goal with 5:25 left. Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards, and Dwight Phillips Jr. ran for 120, with Georgia playing without its leading rusher. It was Kirby Smart’s first regular-season win over Alabama and Georgia’s first win in Tuscaloosa since 2007. Georgia rose from #38 to #7 in The Precedent Ratings and moved to #1 in the AP Poll with 66 first-place votes.

Kentucky 35, LSU 34 (OT)

For the second week in a row, Kentucky was tied 27-27 at the end of regulation and won the overtime 8-7. Adam Zouagui forced overtime with a 33-yard field goal after missing two earlier fourth-quarter tries. Will Stein again went for two after Kentucky’s overtime touchdown, and Kenny Minchey ran it in on a quarterback draw. Kentucky was a 9.5-point underdog and is the first FBS team to win consecutive overtime games by one point. It sits at #6 in The Precedent Ratings and #15 in the AP Poll.

UCLA 17, Oregon 15

Oregon scored six points through three quarters at home, and neither team scored in the third. UCLA forced seven turnovers, held Oregon to 272 yards and stopped two late two-point tries to win as a 10.5-point underdog. Oregon played without Dante Moore, who is in the concussion protocol, and Dylan Raiola started at quarterback. UCLA lost starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to a lower-body injury during the game. Wayne Knight ran for 103 yards and scored both UCLA touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. It was UCLA’s first win in Eugene since 2004, and Bob Chesney is the first UCLA coach to start 5-0. Oregon fell from #5 to #13 in The Precedent Ratings and out of the AP Poll. UCLA rose from #58 to #30.

Indiana 20, Nebraska 17

Indiana trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters (10-3 at halftime, 10-6 after three) and was down 17-6 early in the fourth. Josh Hoover then hit Nick Marsh for a 75-yard touchdown and a 44-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1. Indiana won but did not cover as an 8.5-point favorite. Its winning streak is now 22 games, the longest active streak in FBS. Nebraska was unbeaten against FBS opponents entering the game, which is why Indiana jumped from #54 to #5 in The Precedent Ratings.

South Carolina 38, Florida 19

South Carolina led 31-13 after three quarters and won by 19 as a 10.5-point underdog. It was Florida’s second straight lopsided loss, after a 45-17 defeat at Missouri. Florida was #1 in The Precedent Ratings after weeks 2, 3 and 4. It is now #15 and out of the AP Poll.

Houston 35, Kansas State 16

Houston led 35-9 after three quarters, in Manhattan, against a Kansas State team favored by 2.5. Kansas State’s only touchdown came in a fourth quarter Houston didn’t score in. Houston is #14 in The Precedent Ratings.

Missouri 27, Texas A&M 6

After Texas A&M took a 3-0 lead, Missouri outscored it 27-3. Jamal Roberts ran for a career-high 222 yards and two touchdowns, including a 54-yarder, and Texas A&M finished with 216 total yards and no offensive touchdowns. Missouri covered a four-point line by 17.

North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17

Pittsburgh came in 5-0 and ranked #25 in the AP Poll. North Carolina trailed 10-7 at halftime, led 14-10 after three and won as a 3.5-point underdog. It was Bill Belichick’s first win over a ranked team at North Carolina. Pittsburgh fell from #6 to #27 in The Precedent Ratings.

Other results: USC won 31-23 at Penn State in front of a Beaver Stadium record crowd of 114,419, with Jayden Maiava throwing for 301 yards and three touchdowns. Iowa beat Washington 41-24 on Friday as Kamari Moulton ran for a career-best 208 yards and two touchdowns. Notre Dame beat Stanford 58-7, Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt 52-17, Ohio State beat Maryland 45-16, Utah beat Kansas 41-24, and BYU beat Iowa State 24-10. Buffalo beat Toledo 23-8 as an 18.5-point underdog, the largest upset of the weekend by the line.

The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter

• Louisville over Florida State, 44-20, after trailing by 14

• Utah State over Washington State, 17-16, after trailing by 13

• Louisiana Tech over Louisiana, 32-31, after trailing by 11

• Oklahoma over Texas, 27-24, after trailing by 10

• Virginia over Syracuse, 28-25, after trailing by 10

• Indiana over Nebraska, 20-17, after trailing by 7

Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won

• Louisiana Tech over Louisiana (down 11)

• Wyoming over San Jose State (down 7)

• Oklahoma over Texas (down 7)

• Utah State over Washington State (down 6)

• Navy over Tulsa (down 6)

• Indiana over Nebraska (down 4)

• Tennessee over Arkansas (down 4)

• Virginia over Syracuse (down 3)

• Army over Tulane (down 3)

• Jacksonville State over Kennesaw State (down 2)

• Eastern Michigan over Akron (down 1)

• Old Dominion over Appalachian State (down 1)

• California over Virginia Tech (down 1)

Of the 58 games with a line, favorites won 39 and covered 23, and one game pushed.

Underdogs that won outright

• Buffalo over Toledo, 23-8 (18.5)

• South Carolina over Florida, 38-19 (10.5)

• UCLA over Oregon, 17-15 (10.5)

• California over Virginia Tech, 25-20 (10.0)

• Kentucky over LSU, 35-34 (9.5)

• Old Dominion over Appalachian State, 10-3 (8.5)

• Oklahoma over Texas, 27-24 (7.5)

• Coastal Carolina over Marshall, 27-21 (4.5)

• Georgia Tech over Duke, 28-25 (4.5)

• Wyoming over San Jose State, 16-13 (4.5)

• North Carolina over Pittsburgh, 21-17 (3.5)

• UConn over Temple, 34-20 (3.5)

• South Alabama over Arkansas State, 56-49 (3.0)

• Georgia over Alabama, 20-17 (2.5)

• Houston over Kansas State, 35-16 (2.5)

• Iowa over Washington, 41-24 (2.5)

• Purdue over Minnesota, 41-13 (2.5)

• UNLV over North Dakota State, 13-7 (2.5)

• USC over Penn State, 31-23 (1.5)

Favorites that fell furthest short of the line

• Toledo, favored by 18.5, lost by 15 (33.5 short)

• Minnesota, favored by 2.5, lost by 28 (30.5 short)

• Florida, favored by 10.5, lost by 19 (29.5 short)

• Kansas State, favored by 2.5, lost by 19 (21.5 short)

• Washington, favored by 2.5, lost by 17 (19.5 short)

Favorites that beat the line by the most

• Oregon State, favored by 16.5 over San Diego State, won by 52 (35.5 better)

• Ole Miss, favored by 9.5 over Vanderbilt, won by 35 (25.5 better)

• Louisville, favored by 3.5 over Florida State, won by 24 (20.5 better)

• Wake Forest, favored by 3.5 over NC State, won by 24 (20.5 better)

• Western Kentucky, favored by 1.5 over Missouri State, won by 21 (19.5 better)

Rankings Talk

The ratings keep spreading out. There are now 88 distinct ratings among 138 teams, up from 78 a week ago, and 14 teams remain at 0.000, down from 20. The top three are separated by two thousandths of a point: Alabama 0.546, Miami (FL) 0.545 and Texas 0.544.

That is how Alabama lost and still moved from #3 to #1. Its loss came against an unbeaten Georgia, and Texas lost to Oklahoma. The Precedent Ratings measure a team’s record against the records of the teams it played, so who beat you counts as well as whether you lost.

That idea also explains this week’s biggest gap with the AP Poll. The two agree on 16 of their 25 ranked teams. Ohio State is #4 in the AP and #30 in The Precedent Ratings. It is 5-1 with the third-best average scoring margin in the country, +29.5 per game, but its opponents are a combined 12-18. SMU is #24 in the AP and #81 in The Precedent Ratings, with opponents a combined 5-13. Ole Miss is #9 in the AP and #34 here. The gap runs the other way too. Boise State is #4 in The Precedent Ratings and #23 in the AP, with its only loss at Oregon and opponents a combined 15-10. Oregon is #13 and out of the AP Poll, but its four opponents have gone a combined 18-3, the second-toughest schedule any team has played.

Biggest risers

• Indiana, #54 to #5: It beat a Nebraska team that was unbeaten against FBS opponents, and its opponents’ combined record went from 4-11 to 11-12.

• Georgia, #38 to #7: It won at an Alabama team that was 5-0, and its opponents went from 5-11 to 12-14.

• North Carolina, #70 to #26: It handed Pittsburgh its first loss.

• Navy, Buffalo and Old Dominion: Each picked up its first win that counts in the ratings and moved off 0.000.

Biggest fallers

• Florida, #4 to #15: It lost its second straight game, 38-19 at home to South Carolina.

• Duke, #19 to #54: It lost 28-25 to Georgia Tech, which had not won a game against an FBS opponent.

• Pittsburgh, #6 to #27: It suffered its first loss, 21-17 to North Carolina.

• Minnesota, #20 to #53: It lost 41-13 to Purdue as a 2.5-point favorite.

• Florida State, #35 to #72: It led Louisville by 14 and lost 44-20.

• Texas, #1 to #3: It suffered its first loss.

Kentucky is #6 in The Precedent Ratings but #64 in scoring margin, at +1.6 points per game, after two one-point overtime wins in a row. New Mexico has the fifth-best scoring margin in the country, +25.2 per game, but sits at #68 because of who it has played.

Wisconsin, Oregon, Florida and Nebraska are all in The Precedent’s top 15, and none of them is in the AP top 25. The longest line on the chart belongs to SMU, #24 in the AP and #81 in The Precedent Ratings.

The Rankings

Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.

The SEC is still the top-rated conference, though its rating slipped from 0.397 to 0.381. The Independents moved up two spots to #6.

The full Precedent Ratings, with every conference’s standings and every team’s schedule, are attached for subscribers.

Loose Ends

• Both unbeaten-versus-unbeaten games went to the road team: Georgia at Alabama and Indiana at Nebraska.

• Three games went to overtime: Kentucky over LSU (35-34), Illinois over Michigan State (38-37) and Wyoming over San Jose State (16-13).

• Notre Dame freshman Jonaz Walton scored on a 97-yard run and finished with 181 rushing yards against Stanford.

• Texas Tech has the best second-half scoring margin in the country, +15.8 points per game. UCLA is next at +15.0.

• South Carolina has played the toughest schedule so far, and Oregon the second toughest.

• Four of the five toughest remaining schedules belong to SEC teams: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida and Vanderbilt. Ohio State, at #3, is the only one outside the SEC.

• James Madison is 6-0 and has the fifth-easiest remaining schedule.

Looking Ahead

There is one unbeaten-versus-unbeaten game next week: Notre Dame (6-0) at BYU (5-0).

Top games for next week by The Precedent Ratings:

• Florida (#15) at Texas (#3), Saturday, 11:00 AM

• Kentucky (#6) at Oklahoma (#21), Saturday, 6:30 PM

• Mississippi State (#8) at LSU (#18), Saturday, 11:00 AM

• Nebraska (#15) at Oregon (#13), Saturday, time not yet set

• Alabama (#1) at Tennessee (#37), Saturday, 2:30 PM

• Notre Dame (#23) at BYU (#9), Saturday, 6:30 PM

• Ohio State (#30) at Indiana (#5), Saturday, 11:00 AM

• Wisconsin (#11) at UCLA (#30), Saturday, time not yet set

• Auburn (#37) at Georgia (#7), Saturday, 2:30 PM

• Missouri (#12) at Ole Miss (#34), Saturday, 2:30 PM

All times are Central. Friday’s Weekend Viewing Guide will break the slate into time windows and list the top four games in each.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

If you can only spare one window, make it Saturday Evening. Its Avg. Game Rank of 7.0 ties for the best of the weekend, and it brings LSU at Kentucky at 6:00 PM, followed by Georgia at Alabama and USC at Penn State, both at 6:30 PM. Saturday Afternoon matches it at 7.0, with Texas at Oklahoma and UCLA at Oregon both kicking off at 2:30 PM. The Game of the Week is in the Saturday Evening window.

A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this guide comes from The Precedent Ratings, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. The number in front of each game is its Game Rank, which orders the weekend’s games using both teams’ ratings. In each window, a lower Avg. Game Rank means a stronger slate. Only FBS-vs-FBS games are included, and all kickoff times are Central.

Game of the Week

LSU (#12) at Kentucky (#7), LSU -8.5, over/under 51.5, Saturday 6:00 PM, ESPN

No game this weekend pairs two higher-rated teams, yet the AP Poll barely notices one of them. LSU sits at #10 in the AP, and Kentucky, #7 in The Precedent Ratings, is not ranked there at all. Both teams have already beaten Texas A&M, LSU by 35-6 and Kentucky by 31-21. Kentucky has won three games in a row and LSU has won two. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt is off the availability report and said Tuesday he expects to be 100 percent after a hamstring injury limited him the last two weeks.

Florida State arrives on a two-game winning streak, and Louisville has lost two in a row. Both have played SMU: Florida State lost 27-24, while Louisville won 41-31. Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz is probable after playing through a lower-leg injury, and Florida State has no quarterback concerns. Florida State plays #2 Miami (FL) next week.

BYU has won four games in a row and plays #25 Notre Dame next week, but it will be without running back LJ Martin, who is expected to miss four to six weeks. Iowa quarterback Hank Brown is questionable with a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, and Kirk Ferentz said Wednesday that Jeremy Hecklinski has the job in practice and Brown’s chances of playing are “not great at this point.” Washington has lost two in a row. Wyoming and San Jose State have both beaten Hawaii, Wyoming 27-10 and San Jose State 20-16. Washington State and Utah State have both lost to Washington, by scores of 24-10 and 16-14, and Washington State has lost two in a row.

Pittsburgh has won five games in a row but lost starting quarterback Mason Heintschel for the season to a torn ACL. Holden Geriner, who came off the bench to throw the game-winning touchdown in last week’s 35-33 win over Virginia Tech, gets the start. North Carolina has lost two in a row. Oklahoma State has won three straight, and UCF receiver Duane Thomas Jr. is questionable but could make his first appearance of the season. Florida comes in off a 45-17 loss at Missouri and plays #1 Texas next week. South Carolina has lost three in a row, and Shane Beamer would not commit to edge rusher Dylan Stewart playing after his one-game suspension.

Texas and UCLA have each won four games in a row, and Texas plays #4 Florida next week. Oregon has won two straight and plays #24 Nebraska next week, but quarterback Dante Moore is out with a concussion, so Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola makes his first start for the Ducks. Houston has won two in a row and plays #22 Oklahoma State next week. Ole Miss plays #10 Missouri next week. Vanderbilt has lost two in a row, but freshman quarterback Jared Curtis is probable after sitting out at Georgia, and Clark Lea said he had a full week of practice.

Georgia and Alabama have each won five games in a row. Hurricane Isaias has Tuscaloosa expecting a 90 percent chance of showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday, though the kickoff time and site are unchanged and the SEC says it is monitoring the storm. College GameDay has already moved indoors to Coleman Coliseum. Georgia will be without running back Chauncey Bowens, its leading scorer. Penn State has lost two in a row and lists 12 players out. Minnesota has won three games in a row.

Boise State and Fresno State have each won four games in a row, and one of those streaks ends Saturday night. Utah has also won four straight, and Kansas will be without backup quarterback Cole Ballard. Hawaii has lost two in a row. Arizona State is coming off a 55-19 loss to Baylor and plays #16 Texas Tech next week.

By the Numbers

• Unbeaten teams: 15 teams are still unbeaten, and two games put unbeaten teams against each other: Georgia at Alabama and Indiana at Nebraska.

• Biggest line: Notre Dame -38.5 over Stanford.

• Closest lines: 1.5 points in two games, Georgia at Alabama (Alabama -1.5) and USC at Penn State (Penn State -1.5).

• Highest total: 61.5, Arizona at West Virginia.

• Lowest total: 39.5, Texas at Oklahoma.

• Longest active win streaks: Ten teams have won five games in a row: Texas Tech, Alabama, North Dakota State, James Madison, Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Indiana, Nebraska, Georgia and Notre Dame. Two of those streaks end this weekend, because Georgia plays at Alabama and Indiana plays at Nebraska.

Sleeper of the Week

Iowa (#18) at Washington (#58), Washington -3.0, over/under 41.5, Friday 8:00 PM, TV not yet listed

The Precedent Ratings put Iowa 40 spots ahead of Washington, and the AP Poll has Iowa at #20 with Washington unranked, yet Washington is the favorite. Iowa’s quarterback situation is unsettled. Hank Brown has started all five games but is questionable with a shoulder injury, and Kirk Ferentz said, “Right now, our mindset is that Heck’s got it.” That would mean the first college start for Jeremy Hecklinski, who replaced Brown in the second half of the Ohio State loss and completed all five of his passes. Washington has lost two in a row.

Storyline to Watch

Georgia (#38) at Alabama (#3), Alabama -1.5, over/under 51.5, Saturday 6:30 PM, ABC

Both teams are unbeaten with five straight wins, and the two rankings could hardly disagree more. The AP Poll has Georgia at #2 and Alabama at #6, while The Precedent Ratings have Alabama at #3 and Georgia at #38. The 1.5-point line ties for the closest of the weekend. Georgia will be without leading scorer Chauncey Bowens, and Alabama tight end Josh Ford is questionable after breaking his arm last week. Hurricane Isaias is bringing rain and possible thunderstorms to Tuscaloosa, but as of Thursday the 6:30 PM kickoff stands.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

Weekend Recap

Florida was one of seven teams to lose its unbeaten record this week, and the number of unbeaten teams dropped from 22 to 15. Cincinnati, Florida, Iowa, Massachusetts, Mississippi State, South Florida and Virginia Tech all took a first loss. Winless teams slipped from four to three.

By the numbers

• 56 FBS-vs-FBS games were played, up from the season average of 53.8 per week through week 4.

• 22 of those 56 games (39%) were decided by one score, compared with 33% last week and a season average of 33%.

• Home teams won 30 of 56 (54%), against a season average of 68%. The weekly home win rate has gone 82%, 67%, 70%, 53% and now 54%.

• The average combined score was 52.8 points, up from 50.9 last week and just above the season average of 52.4.

• Favorites won 40 of the 56 games with a betting line and covered 27, with one push. Sixteen underdogs won outright.

• Favorites by fewer than 7 points won only 14 of 27 games and missed the number by 4.6 points on average. Favorites by 14 to 24.5 points won all 14 of theirs.

• 11 games were won by the team trailing at halftime, 4 by a team trailing entering the fourth quarter, and 3 went to overtime.

Missouri 45, Florida 17. Florida arrived in Columbia unbeaten, first in the ratings and favored by 5.5 points. Missouri won by 28, which beat the line by 33.5. The game was tied 3-3 after one quarter. Missouri led 20-10 at halftime and 30-10 after three, and outscored Florida 15-7 in the fourth. Jamal Roberts ran 24 times for 211 yards and three touchdowns, including an 80-yard score in the fourth quarter, and Austin Simmons threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Missouri finished with 560 yards and snapped a nine-game losing streak against ranked opponents. Florida’s rating fell from 0.750 to 0.529, which moved the Gators from first to fourth. Their four FBS opponents are a combined 12-5 against FBS teams, which kept the rating in the top five. Missouri’s rating rose from 0.371 to 0.450, a jump from 22nd to 10th. The AP poll moved Missouri from 25th to 14th and Florida from 8th to 16th. Missouri’s only loss this season came a week earlier, 31-24 at Mississippi State, a game the Tigers led 24-17 after three quarters.

Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. Both teams entered unbeaten, and Alabama scored 14 points in every quarter. Mississippi State turned the ball over three times, and Alabama turned all three into points, including a 30-yard interception return by Dijon Lee Jr. Keelon Russell threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another score, and Alabama outrushed Mississippi State 179 yards to 18. Alabama has now scored at least 45 points in all five of its games (48, 45, 50, 49 and 56). It was favored by 5.5 and covered by 27.5. Its rating rose from 0.417 to 0.550, a jump from 14th to 3rd. Mississippi State went from 14th to 8th even with the loss, because its opponents’ combined FBS win percentage rose from .417 to .571 once 5-0 Alabama joined its record. Alabama’s 33-point win came in the same stadium where Missouri lost by 7 the week before.

Pittsburgh 35, Virginia Tech 33. Both teams were 4-0 on Friday night, and Pitt won as a 2.5-point underdog, beating the line by 4.5. The 68 total points cleared the 54.5 over/under by 13.5. Virginia Tech led 14-0 early, Pitt took a 28-24 lead into the fourth, and Virginia Tech was held scoreless in the third quarter. Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for a career-high 434 yards and Virginia Tech outgained Pitt 499-295, but the Hokies had four turnovers to none, and Pitt scored 14 points off them. On the final drive, Virginia Tech went from its own 20 to the Pitt 18, and John Love’s field goal try missed wide left as time expired. Pitt (5-0) sits 6th in the ratings and Virginia Tech (4-1) is 49th.

Northwestern 34, Penn State 13. Northwestern led after every quarter (10-0, 24-7, 31-7) and ran for 413 yards, with Caleb Komolafe rushing for 188 and Joseph Himon II for 162 on just 10 carries. Aidan Chiles threw for 93 yards. Penn State was a 2.5-point favorite and lost by 21, its largest loss of the season, so Northwestern beat the line by 23.5. Northwestern’s rating moved from 0.334 (27th) to 0.410 (15th), and Penn State’s went from 0.273 (47th) to 0.266 (55th). Northwestern’s only loss was 29-23 at Indiana on Sept. 25. Indiana led that game 12-0 at halftime, and Northwestern outscored the Hoosiers 16-14 in the fourth quarter. Northwestern’s 23 points are the most any team has scored on Indiana this season. The next most is 16, and Indiana’s other three FBS wins came by 36, 38 and 32 points.

Kentucky 35, South Carolina 34 (OT). Kentucky trailed 14-0 after one quarter and 20-10 at halftime, and it was a 2.5-point underdog. Kenny Minchey threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns, and a 66-yard drive ending in a 29-yard field goal with 4:13 left tied the game at 27. South Carolina scored first in overtime. Kentucky answered with a 6-yard touchdown pass and went for two rather than kick the extra point, and Minchey’s pass to Willie Rodriguez won it. LaNorris Sellers ran for 147 yards for the Gamecocks. Kentucky is 7th in the ratings at 0.458, and South Carolina is 86th.

Houston 27, UCF 17. UCF led 10-0 at halftime and 17-0 late in the third quarter, and then Houston scored the game’s last 27 points. Conner Weigman, who was sick, ran for three touchdowns, all in the second half, and Houston held UCF to 48 yards in the fourth quarter. UCF’s rating fell from 0.445 to 0.344, dropping it from 7th to 29th. Houston is 13th at 0.422.

Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20. This was the week’s largest line upset. Bowling Green came in 0-4 and won as a 10.5-point underdog on Leo Kemp’s 2-yard touchdown run with seven seconds left. Miami (OH) led 20-17, and Bowling Green went 75 yards in 10 plays over the last 1:47. Jay Kastantin threw for 305 yards. Bowling Green’s rating went from 0.000 to 0.156 (95th), and Miami (OH) fell from 54th to 102nd.

Other results. Minnesota beat Michigan 20-14 after trailing 14-10 entering the fourth quarter. Notre Dame won 37-26 at North Carolina to move to 5-0, with all five wins by at least 11 points. San Diego State came back from 14 down to beat Texas State 31-29 as a 9.5-point underdog, and Purdue won 24-17 at Illinois as a 10-point underdog. Baylor won 55-19 at Arizona State, a 36-point margin that left Arizona State, a 3.5-point favorite, 39.5 points short of the line, the largest miss of the week. Miami (FL) beat Clemson 41-13, Georgia beat Vanderbilt 38-14 (the Commodores covered the 25.5-point line by 1.5), Ohio State beat Iowa 31-14, Wisconsin beat Michigan State 31-3, and Wake Forest beat Stanford 57-3. USC beat Washington 25-21, Arizona beat Cincinnati 34-7, Iowa State beat West Virginia 45-42, and N.D. State shut out Wyoming 28-0. Fresno State beat Washington State 26-6 for its first Pac-12 win. North Texas beat Tulsa 45-44 and Syracuse beat Connecticut 42-41, both in overtime.

Biggest deficits overcome by the winner, after any quarter

• Kentucky over South Carolina, 35-34 in overtime, trailed by 14

• San Diego State over Texas State, 31-29, trailed by 14

• Houston over UCF, 27-17, trailed by 10

• Nebraska over Maryland, 48-23, trailed by 9

• Florida State over Virginia, 38-7, trailed by 7

• Minnesota over Michigan, 20-14, trailed by 7

Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won

• Minnesota over Michigan (down 4)

• Western Michigan over Buffalo (down 4)

• Louisiana over Arkansas State (down 3)

• Houston over UCF (down 3)

Underdogs that won outright (largest line first)

• Bowling Green over Miami (OH), 24-20, line 10.5

• Purdue over Illinois, 24-17, line 10.0

• San Diego State over Texas State, 31-29, line 9.5

• Eastern Michigan over Massachusetts, 38-14, line 6.0

• Minnesota over Michigan, 20-14, line 6.0

• Missouri over Florida, 45-17, line 5.5

• Temple over South Florida, 17-13, line 5.5

• Baylor over Arizona State, 55-19, line 3.5

• N.C. State over Louisville, 31-28, line 3.0

• Fresno State over Washington St., 26-6, line 2.5

• Kentucky over South Carolina, 35-34, line 2.5

• North Texas over Tulsa, 45-44, line 2.5

• Northwestern over Penn State, 34-13, line 2.5

• Pittsburgh over Virginia Tech, 35-33, line 2.5

• San Jose State over Hawaii, 20-16, line 2.5

• Florida State over Virginia, 38-7, line 1.5

Favorites that fell furthest short of the line

• Arizona State lost to Baylor by 36 with a line of 3.5, 39.5 points short

• Florida lost to Missouri by 28 with a line of 5.5, 33.5 short

• Virginia lost to Florida State by 31 with a line of 1.5, 32.5 short

• Massachusetts lost to Eastern Michigan by 24 with a line of 6.0, 30.0 short

• Penn State lost to Northwestern by 21 with a line of 2.5, 23.5 short

Favorites that beat the line by the most

• Wake Forest beat Stanford by 54 with a line of 14.5, covering by 39.5

• Kansas beat MTSU by 55 with a line of 21.0, covering by 34.0

• Memphis beat Charlotte by 51 with a line of 20.5, covering by 30.5

• New Mexico beat UTEP by 54 with a line of 23.5, covering by 30.5

• Georgia State beat Old Dominion by 32 with a line of 2.5, covering by 29.5

Rankings Talk

The ratings spread out this week. There are now 78 distinct rating values, up from 52 a week ago, and the number of teams sitting at 0.000 dropped from 30 to 20. Several of the biggest risers got there by leaving that pile after a first FBS win.

At the top, Texas (off this week) leads at 0.647, which is a win percentage of 1.000 times opponents’ win percentage of 0.647. Miami (FL) follows at 0.579, then Alabama at 0.550, Florida at 0.529 and Oregon at 0.513. Florida’s drop of 0.221 was the largest of any team this week.

Three unbeaten teams show the widest gap between record and rating. Here are the plain resume facts.

Georgia is 5-0 (4-0 against FBS teams) and second in the AP poll, but 38th in the ratings. Its FBS opponents, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, are a combined 5-11 against FBS teams, which gives Georgia a rating of 0.313. Georgia leads all 138 teams in scoring margin per FBS game at +32.5, a number the rating does not use.

Indiana is 5-0 (4-0 against FBS teams), seventh in the AP poll and 54th in the ratings. North Texas, Western Kentucky, Northwestern and Rutgers are a combined 4-11 against FBS teams, which gives Indiana a rating of 0.267. Its scoring margin of +28.0 per FBS game ranks seventh.

UCLA is 4-0, 21st in the AP poll and 58th in the ratings. California, San Diego State, Purdue and Maryland are a combined 4-12 against FBS teams, which gives UCLA a rating of 0.250. Its scoring margin of +26.0 per FBS game ranks ninth.

Each opponent’s record includes its games against the team itself, and those records are still taking shape.

Biggest risers

• Louisiana Tech, 109th to 73rd (0.000 to 0.212), won 31-29 over Army for its first FBS win, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.333

• Purdue, 109th to 77th (0.000 to 0.195), won 24-17 at Illinois, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.250

• San Diego State, 109th to 80th (0.000 to 0.188), beat Texas State 31-29, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.250

• Syracuse, 109th to 91st (0.000 to 0.167), beat Connecticut 42-41 in overtime, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.333

• Bowling Green, 109th to 95th (0.000 to 0.156), beat Miami (OH) 24-20, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.250

• Temple, 109th to 95th (0.000 to 0.156), beat South Florida 17-13, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.250

Biggest fallers

• Florida, 1st to 4th (0.750 to 0.529), took its first loss, so its win percentage fell from 1.000 to 0.750, and its opponents’ win percentage slipped from 0.750 to 0.706

• UTSA, 17th to 49th (0.400 to 0.281), won at Rice but saw its opponents’ combined win percentage drop from 0.600 to 0.375, as Texas State, Colorado State and Rice each added a loss

• Miami (OH), 54th to 102nd (0.259 to 0.141), lost to Bowling Green, dropping its win percentage from 0.333 to 0.250, and its opponents’ win percentage fell from 0.778 to 0.563

• Arkansas, 41st to 80th (0.296 to 0.188), lost 34-7 at Texas A&M, dropping its win percentage from 0.333 to 0.250, and its opponents’ win percentage fell from 0.889 to 0.750

• UCF, 7th to 29th (0.445 to 0.344), lost 27-17 at Houston, dropping its win percentage from 0.667 to 0.500

• Army, 55th to 99th (0.250 to 0.152), lost 31-29 at Louisiana Tech, dropping its win percentage from 0.500 to 0.333

Rating rank is higher than margin rank

• Stanford (2-3), rating rank 64, margin rank 125 (average margin -20.8 over 5 FBS games)

• Marshall (3-2), rating rank 58, margin rank 118 (-16.2 over 4)

• Clemson (3-2), rating rank 37, margin rank 91 (-6.4 over 5)

• Kentucky (4-1), rating rank 7, margin rank 60 (+1.8 over 4)

• Oregon (3-1), rating rank 5, margin rank 56 (+4.3 over 3)

• Michigan State (2-3), rating rank 39, margin rank 86 (-5.0 over 5)

• Arizona State (2-2), rating rank 78, margin rank 123 (-19.0 over 3)

• Central Michigan (3-2), rating rank 58, margin rank 102 (-10.5 over 4)

Rating rank is lower than margin rank

• Georgia State (4-1), rating rank 111, margin rank 26 (+13.2 over 4)

• Nevada (1-3), rating rank 115, margin rank 41 (+8.3 over 3)

• Massachusetts (4-1), rating rank 113, margin rank 46 (+7.0 over 3)

• Kansas (2-2), rating rank 99, margin rank 37 (+10.3 over 3)

• New Mexico (4-1), rating rank 65, margin rank 10 (+25.2 over 4)

• Connecticut (2-3), rating rank 118, margin rank 67 (+0.0 over 4)

• UCLA (4-0), rating rank 58, margin rank 9 (+26.0 over 4)

• Indiana (5-0), rating rank 54, margin rank 7 (+28.0 over 4)

Nineteen of the AP’s 25 teams are also in the top 25 of the ratings. Here is where the two lists disagree most.

AP ranks the team higher than the ratings do

• SMU (4-1), 24th in the AP, 74th in the ratings, a gap of 50

• Indiana (5-0), 7th in the AP, 54th in the ratings, a gap of 47

• UCLA (4-0), 21st in the AP, 58th in the ratings, a gap of 37

• Georgia (5-0), 2nd in the AP, 38th in the ratings, a gap of 36

• Ole Miss (3-1), 9th in the AP, 34th in the ratings, a gap of 25

• Notre Dame (5-0), 3rd in the AP, 25th in the ratings, a gap of 22

• Utah (4-0), 12th in the AP, 31st in the ratings, a gap of 19

• Ohio State (4-1), 5th in the AP, 23rd in the ratings, a gap of 18

The ratings rank the team higher than the AP does

• Kentucky (4-1), 7th in the ratings and outside the AP top 25, a gap of 19 or more

• Pittsburgh (5-0), 6th in the ratings and 25th in the AP, a gap of 19

• Wisconsin (4-1), 10th in the ratings and outside the AP top 25, a gap of 16 or more

• Florida (4-1), 4th in the ratings and 16th in the AP, a gap of 12

• Northwestern (3-1), 15th in the ratings and outside the AP top 25, a gap of 11 or more

• USC (5-1), 9th in the ratings and 19th in the AP, a gap of 10

• Houston (4-1), 13th in the ratings and 22nd in the AP, a gap of 9

• Mississippi State (4-1), 8th in the ratings and 17th in the AP, a gap of 9

The Rankings

Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.

Top 25 Teams

1. Texas (SEC), 4-0, 0.647

2. Miami (FL) (ACC), 5-0, 0.579

3. Alabama (SEC), 5-0, 0.550

4. Florida (SEC), 4-1, 0.529

5. Oregon (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.513

6. Pittsburgh (ACC), 5-0, 0.467

7. Kentucky (SEC), 4-1, 0.458

8. Mississippi St. (SEC), 4-1, 0.457

9. USC (Big Ten), 5-1, 0.451

10. Missouri (SEC), 4-1, 0.450

10. Wisconsin (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.450

12. LSU (SEC), 4-1, 0.441

13. Houston (Big 12), 4-1, 0.422

14. BYU (Big 12), 4-0, 0.417

15. Northwestern (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.410

16. Boise State (Pac-12), 4-1, 0.400

16. Texas Tech (Big 12), 5-0, 0.400

18. Iowa (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.397

19. Duke (ACC), 4-0, 0.385

20. James Madison (Sun Belt), 5-0, 0.375

20. Minnesota (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.375

22. Oklahoma State (Big 12), 3-1, 0.364

23. Ohio State (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.360

24. Nebraska (Big Ten), 5-0, 0.353

25. Cincinnati (Big 12), 4-1, 0.350

25. Notre Dame (Independents), 5-0, 0.350

25. Tennessee (SEC), 4-1, 0.350

CFB Ratings 2026-27 Week 5

330KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Conferences

1. SEC (0.397)

2. Big Ten (0.342)

3. Big 12 (0.306)

4. ACC (0.283)

5. Pac-12 (0.224)

6. American (0.216)

7. Mountain West (0.197)

8. Independents (0.196)

9. Sun Belt (0.177)

10. Mid-American (0.156)

11. Conference USA (0.124)

Loose Ends

• Alabama beat Mississippi State, which beat Missouri, which beat Florida, which beat Ole Miss, which beat LSU. The scores in order were 56-23, 31-24, 45-17, 52-28 and 32-24.

• Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel tore the ACL in his right knee against Virginia Tech and is out for the season. He was hurt on the fourth play of the second half, and he had entered the weekend tied for the ACC lead with 14 touchdown passes.

• Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor was sacked five times, threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and was pulled early in the fourth quarter. He was later seen in a walking boot.

• South Carolina played without defensive end Dylan Stewart, who was suspended by the school and the SEC for throwing a punch in a prior game. The Gamecocks are 0-3 in the SEC and have lost eight straight conference games.

• Michigan has scored fewer than 20 points in four of its five games (13, 17, 19 and 14) and is 0-2 in the Big Ten.

• Minnesota beat Michigan for the first time since 2014 and raised the Little Brown Jug at home for the first time in 49 years.

• Penn State is 3-2 and 0-2 in the Big Ten in its first season under head coach Matt Campbell, and it lost 24-20 to Wisconsin the week before after leading by 17. Penn State and Texas A&M share 55th place in the ratings at 0.266.

• John Love had made 42 of his 44 career field goal attempts from inside 40 yards before the miss against Pitt.

• Missouri’s 28-point margin was its largest against a top-10 team, ahead of a 21-point win at USC in 1976.

• Georgia had outscored opponents 63-0 in the first quarter through four games before Vanderbilt scored on a 60-yard touchdown pass.

• Before Houston’s comeback, FBS teams were 130-3 this season when leading by 17 or more in the second half.

• Northwestern’s win was the first game at the new Ryan Field, listed at $875 million, and it marked the first time since 2012 the Wildcats had two 150-yard rushers.

• Notre Dame’s win at North Carolina was its 15th in a row.

• Notable individual games: Roberts ran for 211 yards for Missouri, Simmons threw for 340, Grunkemeyer threw for 434 for Virginia Tech, Kastantin threw for 305 for Bowling Green, and Sellers ran for 147 for South Carolina.

• The best second-half scoring margins per game this season belong to UCLA (+19.2), LSU (+17.0), Nebraska (+16.2), Texas Tech (+15.8) and Alabama (+15.2). The worst are UTEP (-23.8), Western Kentucky (-14.8) and Arizona State (-14.0).

• The toughest remaining schedules belong to LSU (0.428), Oklahoma (0.415), Texas A&M (0.412), Vanderbilt (0.409) and Ole Miss (0.400), all SEC teams.

• The easiest remaining schedules belong to Jacksonville State and Liberty (tied at 0.054), Massachusetts (0.075), Bowling Green (0.081) and James Madison (0.083).

• Among Power 4 teams and Notre Dame, the easiest remaining schedules belong to Wake Forest (0.200), Clemson (0.223), Pittsburgh (0.228), Syracuse (0.231) and Stanford (0.234), all ACC teams. Wake Forest’s 0.200 ranks 77th of 138 teams (1 = hardest). Notre Dame’s remaining schedule (0.249) is the ninth easiest in that group.

• The toughest schedules played so far belong to Oregon (0.405), South Carolina (0.392), Texas State (0.353), Florida (0.335) and Alabama (0.323). The easiest belong to Massachusetts (0.060), Georgia State (0.086), Liberty (0.121), UAB (0.122) and Connecticut (0.124).

Looking Ahead

Two games next Saturday put unbeaten teams against each other. Indiana (54th in the ratings) visits Nebraska (24th) at 11:00 AM, and Georgia (38th) visits Alabama (3rd) at 6:30 PM. Fifteen teams are still unbeaten, and one team in each of those games will take a first loss.

These are the top games of the week by rating (all times Central).

• LSU (12) at Kentucky (7), Saturday 6:00 PM

• Texas (1) vs. Oklahoma (45), Saturday 2:30 PM, neutral site

• Georgia (38) at Alabama (3), Saturday 6:30 PM

• UCLA (58) at Oregon (5), Saturday 2:30 PM

• UCF (29) at Oklahoma State (22), Saturday 11:00 AM

• Iowa State (42) at BYU (14), Friday 9:15 PM

• USC (9) at Penn State (55), Saturday 6:30 PM

• Texas A&M (55) at Missouri (10), Saturday 11:00 AM

• Houston (13) at Kansas State (52), Saturday 2:30 PM

• Boise State (16) at Fresno State (57), Saturday 9:30 PM

On Friday, the Weekend Viewing Guide will lay out the top four games in each TV window.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

If you can only spare one stretch of Saturday, make it the early window. Alabama and Mississippi State, both unbeaten and both rated 14th, meet at 11:00 AM, with Michigan State at Wisconsin, Michigan at Minnesota, and UCF at Houston filling out the morning. Those four games average a Game Rank of 4.5, the best of any window this weekend. Saturday afternoon is close behind at 5.8, and it has the Game of the Week.

A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this guide comes from The Precedent Ratings, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. The number in front of each game is its Game Rank, which orders the weekend’s games using both teams’ ratings. In each window, a lower Avg. Game Rank means a stronger slate. Only FBS-vs-FBS games are included, and all kickoff times are Central.

Game of the Week

Florida (#1) at Missouri (#22), Florida -5.5, over/under 57.5, 2:30 PM, ABC

Florida has won three in a row and ranks first in The Precedent Ratings, where the AP Poll has the Gators eighth. Missouri, 22nd in the ratings and 25th in the AP, is coming off a loss and hosts as a 5.5-point underdog. The two have no common opponents yet, so there is no shared yardstick to hold them against. A total of 57.5 is among the higher numbers on the weekend’s board.

Friday Evening (Avg. Game Rank 18.7)

• #11 - Penn State (#47) at Northwestern (#27), Penn State -3.0, over/under 45.5, 7:00 PM, FOX

• #15 - Pittsburgh (#21) at Virginia Tech (#66), Virginia Tech -2.5, over/under 54.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN

• #30 - Liberty (#66) at Delaware (#94), Liberty -6.5, over/under 49.5, 6:00 PM, CBSSN

Friday brings three games and a lower profile than Saturday, but Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech puts two unbeaten teams on the field. That game and Liberty at Delaware kick off at 6:00 PM, with Penn State at Northwestern following at 7:00. Put all three in your multiview and the night is covered.

Subscribe now

Saturday Early (Avg. Game Rank 4.5)

• #2 - Alabama (#14) at Mississippi St. (#14), Alabama -6.0, over/under 60.5, 11:00 AM, ABC

• #4 - Michigan State (#24) at Wisconsin (#7), Wisconsin -10.0, over/under 43.5, 11:30 AM, BTN

• #5 - Michigan (#25) at Minnesota (#17), Michigan -5.5, over/under 43.5, 11:00 AM, FOX

• #7 - UCF (#7) at Houston (#41), Houston -11.5, over/under 51.5, 11:00 AM, ESPN2

Three of these games kick off at 11:00 sharp and Michigan State at Wisconsin follows at 11:30, which makes the window a natural four-game multiview. Alabama sits seventh in the AP poll but 14th in the ratings, while Mississippi State is 16th in the AP and 14th here. Two games, Michigan State at Wisconsin and Michigan at Minnesota, share the lowest total of the weekend at 43.5. UCF at Houston has a twist of its own. UCF is rated 7th and Houston 41st, and Houston is still the 11.5-point favorite.

Saturday Afternoon (Avg. Game Rank 5.8)

• #1 - Florida (#1) at Missouri (#22), Florida -5.5, over/under 57.5, 2:30 PM, ABC

• #5 - Ohio State (#25) at Iowa (#17), Ohio State -14.5, over/under 45.5, 2:30 PM, CBS

• #8 - Auburn (#11) at Tennessee (#51), Tennessee -7.0, over/under 54.5, 2:30 PM, ESPN

• #9 - Kentucky (#13) at South Carolina (#49), South Carolina -3.0, over/under 54.5, 3:15 PM, SEC Network

The afternoon is deep, with three games at 2:30 and the SEC Network game right behind at 3:15. The lines, the ratings and the AP Poll see a few of these differently. Ohio State is fifth in the AP and 25th in the ratings, and the 14.5-point favorite at Iowa, which is 14th in the AP and 17th in the ratings. Auburn, rated 11th, is a 7-point underdog at 51st-rated Tennessee, which is 17th in the AP.

Saturday Evening (Avg. Game Rank 11.2)

• #3 - Miami (FL) (#3) at Clemson (#35), Miami (FL) -16.5, over/under 47.5, 6:30 PM, ABC

• #12 - Washington (#66) at USC (#17), USC -8.5, over/under 58.5, 6:30 PM, NBC

• #14 - BYU (#4) at TCU (#86), BYU -6.5, over/under 47.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN

• #16 - Utah State (#66) at Boise State (#22), Boise State -18.5, over/under 51.5, 6:30 PM, CBSSN

Miami (#3) and BYU (#4) are the two highest-rated teams in this window, and both are on the road. Miami is also third in the AP poll, the two lists in close agreement, while BYU is 10th there. Boise State carries the biggest line of the evening at 18.5, just ahead of Miami’s 16.5 at Clemson.

Saturday After Dark (Avg. Game Rank 29.0)

• #18 - Cincinnati (#10) at Arizona (#86), Arizona -6.5, over/under 56.5, 10:00 PM, FOX

• #25 - Baylor (#41) at Arizona State (#86), Arizona State -3.5, over/under 49.5, 9:30 PM, ESPN

• #34 - San Jose State (#79) at Hawaii (#105), Hawaii -3.0, over/under 51.5, 10:59 PM, MW+

• #39 - Fresno State (#55) at Washington St. (#109), Washington St. -1.5, over/under 45.5, 8:30 PM, USA Net

This is the lowest-rated window of the weekend, but it has its own curiosities. Cincinnati sits at #10 and Arizona at #86, and the line still makes Arizona the 6.5-point favorite. Fresno State at Washington State carries one of the two closest lines of the weekend at 1.5. San Jose State at Hawaii kicks off at 10:59 PM, the last start on this list.

By the Numbers

• 22 teams are still unbeaten. Four of them play each other in two head-to-head games, Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech on Friday and Alabama at Mississippi State on Saturday, so two unbeaten teams will lose their zero by Saturday afternoon.

• The biggest line of the weekend is 25.5, Georgia over Vanderbilt. After last weekend I said this would be Georgia’s first real test, and with a line that size it may not be much of one. Georgia is second in the AP poll and 38th in the ratings, and Vanderbilt is rated 27th.

• The closest lines are 1.5, in Fresno State at Washington State and Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina.

• The highest totals are 62.5, in Oregon State at Colorado State and Purdue at Illinois. The lowest are 43.5, in Michigan State at Wisconsin, Michigan at Minnesota, and Bowling Green at Miami (OH).

• Alabama, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Texas and UCLA have each won four straight, the longest active streaks on the board. Alabama and Mississippi State play each other, so one of those streaks ends Saturday.

Sleeper of the Week

Pittsburgh (#21) at Virginia Tech (#66), Virginia Tech -2.5, over/under 54.5, Friday 6:00 PM, ESPN

This game sits 15th on the weekend’s board with a line of just 2.5, which is how a good one slips past people. Both teams are unbeaten and both have won three in a row, so a streak and an unbeaten record are on the line Friday night. Pittsburgh is rated 21st and Virginia Tech 66th, and the oddsmakers still have the Hokies as the home favorite. Neither team is ranked in the AP poll.

Storyline to Watch

Alabama (#14) at Mississippi St. (#14), Alabama -6.0, over/under 60.5, Saturday 11:00 AM, ABC

Two unbeaten teams, tied at 14th in the ratings, each carrying a four-game win streak into Starkville. One of those streaks ends Saturday. Their only common opponent so far is South Carolina, which lost to Alabama 49-18 and to Mississippi State 41-34, a 31-point margin against a 7-point one. The AP poll has Alabama seventh and Mississippi State 16th, and the line has the Crimson Tide by 6.0.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

Weekend Recap

Week 4 delivered the most games of the season, 58 in all, and the fewest favorites winning at home: just 31, or 53 percent, after three straight weeks between 67 and 82 percent. That’s the shape of the whole weekend in one number.

By the numbers

• 58 games were played between FBS teams, the most of any week this season

• Home teams won just 31 of them, 53 percent, the lowest rate of the season

• 19 games (33 percent) were decided by one score or less, in line with the season average of 34 percent

• Combined scoring averaged 50.9 points per game, below the season average of 53.0

• 22 of the 138 FBS teams are still unbeaten, down from 35 the week before

• 4 teams are still winless, down from 7

• 10 games went to a team that trailed at halftime, and 8 went to a team that trailed entering the fourth quarter

Florida 52, Ole Miss 28

Florida led 10-0 before Ole Miss’s offense found any rhythm and never let up, scoring on five straight second-half drives. Jadan Baugh ran for three touchdowns. It’s Florida’s first 4-0 start since 2019, and first-year coach Jon Sumrall became the first coach in SEC history to score 200-plus points through his first four games. The Precedent College Football Ratings had Florida at No. 1 already; this result didn’t change that, it confirmed it.

Iowa 20, Michigan 19

Iowa beat Michigan in Ann Arbor on a touchdown pass with no time left, capping a 91-yard drive. It’s Iowa’s first win at the Big House since 2010, and it came despite Michigan outgaining Iowa 429-285.

Texas 20, Tennessee 17

Texas held off Tennessee in Knoxville behind a school-record five sacks from Colin Simmons and ten sacks as a team. The offense managed 201 yards through the air from Arch Manning and needed the defense to finish the job.

Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20

Wisconsin trailed 17-0, then trailed 20-10 in the fourth quarter, and won on a 72-yard touchdown pass with 1:13 left. Two separate streaks ended in the same game: Penn State had won 64 straight games when leading by 10 or more points in the fourth quarter, and Wisconsin hadn’t won at Beaver Stadium since 2003 or beaten a ranked opponent on the road since October 2021, against Purdue.

Oregon 41, USC 27

Oregon starting quarterback Dante Moore was hit while sliding in the second quarter, drew a targeting ejection, and was taken to the hospital with a concussion. He’s expected back this season; Oregon has a bye before playing again October 10. Backup Dylan Raiola, a Nebraska transfer, threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns in relief. USC linebacker Desman Stephens II was ejected for the hit and suspended by USC for an additional game over his conduct afterward. The win extends Oregon’s streak over USC to five straight, 9-2 across the last 11 meetings.

Other results: LSU buried Texas A&M 35-6 a week after LSU’s own loss. Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24 behind 360 passing yards from Kamario Taylor, the Bulldogs’ first win over a ranked opponent since 2014. Wake Forest won at Louisville 30-27. Jeremiah Smith caught four touchdowns for Ohio State in a 42-19 win over Illinois, tying a program record. Keelon Russell threw for 365 yards in Alabama’s 49-18 win over South Carolina.

Comebacks defined the weekend. Here are the biggest ones.

The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter

• Miami (OH) over Connecticut, 24-21, trailed by 14

• SMU over Missouri State, 34-24, trailed by 10

• Stanford over Georgia Tech, 34-27, trailed by 10

• Wisconsin over Penn State, 24-20, trailed by 10

• Air Force over Nevada, 36-33, trailed by 7

• Arizona over Washington State, 34-24, trailed by 7

Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won

• Wisconsin over Penn State, down 10

• Mississippi State over Missouri, down 7

• Tulane over So. Mississippi, down 7

• Iowa over Michigan, down 6

• South Florida over Bowling Green, down 6

• Air Force over Nevada, down 4

• UAB over Navy, down 3

• Virginia Tech over Boston College, down 1

The betting lines had a rough weekend too. Favorites won 48 of the 58 games that had a line, but only 33 covered, and two pushed.

Underdogs that won outright, largest line first

• Wake Forest over Louisville, 30-27, as an 11.5-point underdog

• Minnesota over Washington, 27-24, as a 10.5-point underdog

• Wisconsin over Penn State, 24-20, as a 10-point underdog

• UAB over Navy, 24-20, as a 6.5-point underdog

• Cincinnati over Kansas State, 31-26, as a 6-point underdog

• Iowa over Michigan, 20-19, as a 5.5-point underdog

• Stanford over Georgia Tech, 34-27, as a 3.5-point underdog

• UCF over TCU, 21-13, as a 3-point underdog

• Wyoming over Hawaii, 27-10, as a 2.5-point underdog

• Oklahoma State over West Virginia, 41-24, as a 1.5-point underdog

Favorites that fell furthest short of the line

• SMU, 23.5 points short in a 34-24 win over Missouri State

• Hawaii, 19.5 points short against Wyoming

• West Virginia, 18.5 points short against Oklahoma State

• Indiana, 14.5 points short against Northwestern

• Louisville, 14.5 points short against Wake Forest

Favorites that beat the line by the most

• UCLA, by 49.5 points, in a 54-3 win over Maryland

• Massachusetts, by 24.5 points, over Sacramento State

• Toledo, by 22.5 points, over San Diego State

• Arkansas, by 21.0 points, over Tulsa

• Florida, by 20.5 points, over Ole Miss

Rankings Talk

Three weeks ago the ratings had 12 distinct values across 138 teams. This week there are 52, with 30 teams still at 0.000, down from 44 the week before. The picture is sorting itself out fast, but there’s still a lot of shared rank at the bottom, so read the lower half loosely. The top is a different story.

Florida sits alone at No. 1, the only team the ratings clearly separate from the pack. Behind that, this week’s real story is a growing gap between records and resumes.

Georgia is 4-0, second in the AP poll, and has outscored its FBS opponents by an average of 35.3 points per game, best in the country. It’s also 38th in the ratings. The resume explains why: Western Kentucky, Arkansas, and Oklahoma have a combined FBS record of 3-7. Notre Dame is in a similar spot: 4-0, third in the AP poll, and its four FBS opponents, Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, and Purdue, have a combined mark of 4-9. Indiana is the one team in this group that actually got tested. Also undefeated, sixth in the AP poll, and its first two FBS opponents, North Texas and Western Kentucky, had allowed Indiana to outscore them 90-16 combined before Northwestern showed up in Week 4 and hung 23 points on that defense by itself, more than Indiana’s first two FBS opponents managed together. Indiana still won, 29-23, but it needed everything it had against a team most people had barely heard of two weeks ago. Georgia and Notre Dame haven’t had a moment like that yet.

Now flip it around. Duke is 4-0, has actually beaten three FBS teams with a combined winning record, and doesn’t have a single vote in the AP poll. UCF and Wisconsin are both 3-1 with genuinely tough schedules behind them and neither cracks the top 25 either. Oklahoma State is a clean example: unranked two weeks ago, now the owner of a 41-24 win at West Virginia that wasn’t particularly close after the third quarter, and the rating has it 7th in the country. Kentucky is 3-1 with real wins and sits 13th by the rating, 24th in the AP poll almost as an afterthought.

None of this means Georgia or Notre Dame are bad teams. It means we don’t know yet. The schedule will answer the question either way: Georgia gets Alabama, Auburn, and Florida over the next several weeks, and Notre Dame has Miami and a trip to BYU still coming.

Biggest risers, all of whom started the week at 0.000

• Air Force, to 0.334, after beating Nevada and North Dakota State improved to 3-0

• Utah, to 0.333, after its three FBS wins started producing records worth counting

• Georgia, to 0.300, for the same reason

• Arkansas, to 0.296

• Tennessee, to 0.267, after Texas improved to 4-0

• Miami (OH), to 0.259

Biggest fallers

• Northwestern, from 0.500 to 0.334, after the Indiana loss

• Louisville, from 0.400 to 0.242, after the Wake Forest loss

• Troy, from 0.250 to 0.111

• MTSU, from 0.300 to 0.167

• W. Michigan, from 0.300 to 0.167

• Notre Dame, from 0.429 to 0.308, even though it won; its opponents’ records didn’t hold up

The biggest gaps between the ratings and the scoreboard run in both directions.

Rating rank is higher than margin rank

• Arkansas, 41st in the ratings, 103rd in average margin (-11.0)

• Miami (OH), 54th in the ratings, 115th in average margin (-15.3)

• UTSA, 17th in the ratings, 76th in average margin (-1.7)

• Central Michigan, 66th in the ratings, 124th in average margin (-22.0)

• Stanford, 50th in the ratings, 108th in average margin (-12.5)

• Oklahoma State, 7th in the ratings, 55th in average margin (+3.7)

Rating rank is lower than margin rank

• Massachusetts, 109th in the ratings, 13th in average margin (+22.5)

• UCLA, 86th in the ratings, 9th in average margin (+26.0)

• Indiana, 55th in the ratings, 7th in average margin (+26.7)

• Arizona, 86th in the ratings, 41st in average margin (+8.0)

Where the ratings and the AP poll disagree most. Sixteen of the AP’s 25 teams are also in the top 25 of the ratings.

The AP ranks the team higher

• SMU, 21st in the AP and 94th in the ratings

• UCLA, 23rd and 86th

• Indiana, 6th and 55th

• Georgia, 2nd and 38th

• Tennessee, 17th and 51st

• Notre Dame, 3rd and 36th

• Houston, 20th and 41st

• Texas Tech, 12th and 33rd

The ratings rank the team higher

• Duke, not in the AP top 25 and 6th in the ratings

• UCF, not in the AP top 25 and 7th

• Wisconsin, not in the AP top 25 and 7th

• Cincinnati, not in the AP top 25 and 10th

• Auburn, not in the AP top 25 and 11th

• Oklahoma State, 19th in the AP and 7th in the ratings

• Kentucky, 24th and 13th

• Oregon, 15th and 5th

The Rankings

Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.

Top 25 Teams

1. Florida (SEC), 4-0, 0.750
2. Texas (SEC), 4-0, 0.615
3. Miami (FL) (ACC), 4-0, 0.545
4. BYU (Big 12), 3-0, 0.500
5. Oregon (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.485
6. Duke (ACC), 4-0, 0.455
7. Oklahoma State (Big 12), 3-1, 0.445
7. UCF (Big 12), 3-1, 0.445
7. Wisconsin (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.445
10. Cincinnati (Big 12), 4-0, 0.444
11. Auburn (SEC), 3-1, 0.437
12. LSU (SEC), 3-1, 0.428
13. Kentucky (SEC), 3-1, 0.424
14. Alabama (SEC), 4-0, 0.417
14. Mississippi State (SEC), 4-0, 0.417
16. Ole Miss (SEC), 3-1, 0.404
17. Iowa (Big Ten), 4-0, 0.400
17. Minnesota (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.400
17. USC (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.400
17. UTSA (American), 3-1, 0.400
21. Pittsburgh (ACC), 4-0, 0.375
22. Boise State (Pac-12), 3-1, 0.371
22. Missouri (SEC), 3-1, 0.371
24. Michigan State (Big Ten), 2-2, 0.357
25. Michigan (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.347
25. Ohio State (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.347

Conferences

1. SEC (0.416)
2. Big Ten (0.354)
3. Big 12 (0.303)
4. ACC (0.292)
5. American (0.229)
6. Pac-12 (0.219)
7. Independents (0.195)
8. Mountain West (0.168)
9. Sun Belt (0.165)
10. Mid-American (0.135)
11. Conference USA (0.120)

Loose Ends

• Colin Simmons tied the Texas program record with five sacks against Tennessee. He was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for a celebration after one of them, which wiped out a Texas sack and handed Tennessee an automatic first down.

• Texas Tech LB Austin Romaine returned two interceptions for touchdowns on consecutive Sam Houston possessions to open the second quarter, one off Brett Holloway, the next off Landyn Locke.

• Michigan’s Week 1 win over Western Michigan, on a Hail Mary set up after officials put one second back on the clock, remains a live controversy; the MAC formally protested the result.

• 22 teams are unbeaten in overall record, and six games this week pit two of them against each other, four involving a ranked team: Ole Miss-Florida, Iowa-Michigan, Northwestern-Indiana, and Texas-Tennessee.

• The biggest line of the week belonged to Central Michigan at Miami, a 41.5-point spread. The closest was a three-way tie at 1.5 points: Oklahoma State-West Virginia, Clemson-California, and UCLA-Maryland.

• Oregon’s schedule so far is the toughest in the country by strength of schedule played (0.405), tied with Texas State.

• Oklahoma has the toughest remaining schedule in the country (0.438), followed by Mississippi State, Missouri, LSU, and Vanderbilt, all five in the SEC.

• Jacksonville State has the easiest remaining schedule in the country (0.053).

• USC’s Desman Stephens II was ejected for targeting on the hit that sent Oregon’s Dante Moore to the hospital, then suspended by USC for an additional game over his conduct on the sideline afterward.

Looking Ahead

Two unbeaten-versus-unbeaten games headline Week 5: Pittsburgh (21) at Virginia Tech (66), Friday 6:00 PM, and Alabama (14) at Mississippi State (14), Saturday 11:00 AM. Both matchups guarantee at least one long winning streak ends this weekend.

Here are the top games for Week 5 by the ratings, with each team’s ratings rank in parentheses. All times Central.

• Florida (1) at Missouri (22), Saturday, 2:30 PM

• Alabama (14) at Mississippi State (14), Saturday, 11:00 AM

• Miami (FL) (3) at Clemson (35), Saturday, 6:30 PM

• Michigan State (24) at Wisconsin (7), Saturday, 11:30 AM

• Ohio State (25) at Iowa (17), Saturday, 2:30 PM

• Michigan (25) at Minnesota (17), Saturday, 11:00 AM

• UCF (7) at Houston (41), Saturday, 11:00 AM

• Auburn (11) at Tennessee (51), Saturday

• Kentucky (13) at South Carolina (49), Saturday, 3:15 PM

• Vanderbilt (27) at Georgia (38), Saturday, 11:45 AM

For the full weekend, watch for Friday’s Weekend Viewing Guide. It breaks the slate into time windows and lists the top four games in each one, with any unbeaten AP top-25 matchup added as well.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop.

Four different windows this weekend carry an average game rank in single digits, which tells you something about how loaded this slate is. Saturday evening is the deepest stretch of the day, with four ranked-ish matchups bunched together and not a bad game in the bunch. If you only have one window to give your full attention, that’s it.

Game of the Week

#6 Ole Miss at #1 Florida — Saturday, 2:30 PM, ABC

Florida sits at the top of the ratings and is favored by 3.5 at home, which is about as thin a margin as you’ll find in a game between a one and a six. Both teams are unbeaten, both have won at least two straight, and the over/under at 59.5 suggests nobody expects a defensive struggle. This is the kind of game that tells you something real about where the season is headed, not just who wins.

From here, we’ll walk through the weekend window by window, so you know what’s on and when. If you’ve got a multi-view setup, these are the games worth filling it with.

Friday Afternoon (Avg. Game Rank: 53.0)

#53 Army (95) at Temple (95) — Army -3.0, O/U 48.5, 3:00 PM, ESPN

Not much shine here on paper, and the ratings have both teams near the bottom of the FBS pack. Army carries a one-game losing streak into this one, Temple’s dropped two straight.

Friday Evening (Avg. Game Rank: 43.0)

#11 Northwestern (2) at Indiana (78) — Indiana -20.5, O/U 49.5, 7:00 PM, FOX
#50 Navy (95) at UAB (91) — Navy -6.5, O/U 51.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN
#68 Howard at Rutgers (95) — Rutgers -43.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN

Northwestern-Indiana is the one to circle, and not because either side is a lock. The Precedent has Northwestern rated as the second-best team in the country, yet Indiana is favored by more than three touchdowns as the home team. It’s early enough in the season that gaps like this can mean the ratings haven’t caught up to reality yet, or they can mean the market hasn’t. We’ll find out which one it is Friday night.

Friday After Dark (Avg. Game Rank: 10.0)

#10 Clemson (36) at California (28) — Clemson -1.5, O/U 50.5, 9:30 PM, ESPN

A late kickoff for a game that’s closer than the records might suggest. Clemson’s won two in a row, Cal one, and a point and a half separates them in Vegas. Good one to have on if you’re still up.

Saturday Early (Avg. Game Rank: 10.5)

#4 Illinois (22) at Ohio State (36) — Ohio State -27.5, O/U 53.5, 11:00 AM, FOX
#9 Wake Forest (62) at Louisville (11) — Louisville -13.5, O/U 56.5, 11:00 AM, ESPN
#12 Colorado State (41) at UTSA (22) — UTSA -13.5, O/U 58.5, 11:00 AM, ESPNU
#17 South Alabama (78) at Kentucky (10) — Kentucky -20.5, O/U 54.5, 11:45 AM, SEC Network

Illinois-Ohio State is the headline here on paper, though a 27.5-point spread doesn’t leave much drama to expect. Louisville’s the heavy favorite in the window’s other big line, a 13.5-point spread against Wake Forest, and if you want the one late add to your morning slate, that’s the game worth flipping to.

Saturday Afternoon (Avg. Game Rank: 6.0)

#1 Ole Miss (6) at Florida (1) — Florida -3.5, O/U 59.5, 2:30 PM, ABC
#3 Iowa (41) at Michigan (6) — Michigan -5.5, O/U 38.5, 2:30 PM, CBS
#8 Boise State (28) at W. Michigan (28) — Boise State -7.0, O/U 49.5, 2:30 PM, ESPN2
#12 Vanderbilt (41) at Auburn (22) — Auburn -9.5, O/U 55.5, 3:15 PM, SEC Network

This window doubles as our Game of the Week slot, but don’t sleep on Iowa-Michigan sitting right alongside it. Both teams are unbeaten, both have won at least two straight, and the 38.5 over/under is the lowest of the entire weekend. There’s also a fun subplot buried in Boise State-Western Michigan: Boise nearly knocked off Oregon, and a lot of people think Western Michigan actually did beat Michigan earlier this year, depending on which replay you believe. Two teams with a case for the best win nobody’s crediting them for, on the same field.

Saturday Evening (Avg. Game Rank: 5.0)

#2 South Carolina (28) at Alabama (15) — Alabama -12.5, O/U 53.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN
#5 Oklahoma State (15) at West Virginia (41) — West Virginia -1.5, O/U 60.5, 6:00 PM, FS1
#6 Texas A&M (62) at LSU (9) — LSU -9.5, O/U 51.5, 6:30 PM, ABC
#7 Oregon (41) at USC (20) — Oregon -3.0, O/U 62.5, 6:30 PM, NBC

This window edges out Saturday afternoon as the deepest of the weekend, though it’s close enough that either one could carry your night. Oklahoma State-West Virginia is a true toss-up at a point and a half, and Oregon-USC carries the highest total of the entire weekend at 62.5. USC also brings the longest active win streak in the country into this one, four games and counting.

Saturday After Dark (Avg. Game Rank: 37.2)

#31 Rice (95) at Fresno State (22) — Fresno State -13.5, O/U 44.5, 9:00 PM, CW
#32 Minnesota (28) at Washington (95) — Washington -10.0, O/U 45.5, 10:00 PM, FOX
#41 Georgia Tech (95) at Stanford (41) — Georgia Tech -3.5, O/U 47.5, 9:30 PM, ESPN
#45 Missouri State (95) at SMU (66) — SMU -34.5, O/U 59.5, 8:00 PM, ACC Network

Minnesota is the name to watch late, not so much for this game but for what’s waiting next week: a date with sixth-ranked Michigan. Whether that’s on their minds Saturday night in Seattle is anyone’s guess, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

By the Numbers

Thirty-five teams enter the weekend unbeaten, and six games this week pit two of them against each other, four involving a ranked team: Ole Miss-Florida, Iowa-Michigan, Northwestern-Indiana, and Texas-Tennessee.

The biggest line of the week belongs to Central Michigan at Miami, a 41.5-point spread. The closest is a three-way tie at 1.5 points: Oklahoma State-West Virginia, Clemson-California, and UCLA-Maryland. Oregon-USC carries the highest total on the board at 62.5, while Iowa-Michigan sits at the other end with a 38.5.

USC’s four-game win streak is the longest active run in the country heading into the weekend.

Sleeper of the Week

#18 UCLA at Maryland — UCLA -1.5, O/U 56.5, 12:30 PM, BTN

Nobody’s talking about this one, but the number says it should be tight. A game ranked 18th overall with a point-and-a-half spread is exactly the kind of matchup that sneaks up on you by the fourth quarter.

Storyline to Watch

Three different games this weekend pit unbeaten teams against each other: Ole Miss-Florida, Iowa-Michigan, and Northwestern-Indiana. By Sunday morning, at most three teams that started the day undefeated will still be able to say so. That’s the kind of weekend that reshapes how the rest of the season looks.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop.

Weekend Recap

The biggest game of the week was Ole Miss against LSU, sixth and ninth in the ratings, and it lived up to the billing. Around it, the weekend looked like this.

By the numbers

• 57 games were played between FBS teams

• Home teams won 40 of them (70 percent), and two games were played at neutral sites

• 21 games (37 percent) were decided by one score

• Combined scoring averaged 55.1 points per game

• 35 of the 138 FBS teams are still unbeaten, and seven are winless

• 10 games went to a team that trailed at halftime, and five went to a team that trailed entering the fourth quarter

Ole Miss 32, LSU 24

• Ole Miss won as a three-point underdog

• Trinidad Chambliss completed 33 of 48 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns

• His 14-yard touchdown run put Ole Miss ahead with 6:14 left

• Ole Miss converted the two-point try on a JT Lindsey run, which made it an eight-point lead

• Jaylon Braxton intercepted Sam Leavitt in the end zone to end LSU’s final drive

The eight-point lead meant LSU needed a touchdown and a two-point conversion just to tie. Lane Kiffin took the LSU job during last season’s playoffs and did not coach Ole Miss in them, so the game came with a storyline of its own.

Comebacks defined the weekend. Here are the biggest ones.

The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter

• Cincinnati over Miami (OH), 35-31, trailed by 21

• Jacksonville State over Georgia Southern, 31-27, trailed by 14

• Vanderbilt over NC State, 35-31, trailed by 14

• Mississippi State over South Carolina, 41-34, trailed by 13

• Alabama over Florida State, 50-36, trailed by 11

• Clemson over North Carolina, 28-20, trailed by 11

Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won

• Jacksonville State over Georgia Southern, down 10

• Vanderbilt over NC State, down 10

• Cincinnati over Miami (OH), down 7

• Toledo over Temple, down 6, in overtime, 49-48

• Clemson over North Carolina, down 2, after a lightning delay that lasted two and a half hours

Vanderbilt’s win earns a closer look. Freshman Jared Curtis threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 64 more, and the Commodores still trailed 31-28 when NC State took over near its own goal line, facing fourth down with six seconds left. Dave Doeren said afterward that the plan was to take an intentional safety and run off as much clock as possible. It didn’t go that way. Quarterback C.J. Bailey was hit in the end zone by Vanderbilt’s Miles Capers and fumbled, and Cayden Daniels recovered it for a touchdown. The play was reviewed, the touchdown stood, and Vanderbilt won 35-31. How a team should handle that spot deserves more room than a paragraph, so I’ll take it up in Wednesday’s video.

The betting lines had a rough weekend. Favorites won 49 of the 57 games that had a line, but only 26 covered, and one game was a push.

Underdogs that won outright, largest line first

• Kentucky over Texas A&M, 31-21, as a 16.5-point underdog

• West Virginia over Virginia, 38-27, as a 10.5-point underdog

• Mississippi State over South Carolina, 41-34, as a 4-point underdog

• MTSU over Nevada, 27-20, as a 3.5-point underdog

• East Carolina over Old Dominion, 20-17, as a 3-point underdog

• Ole Miss over LSU, 32-24, as a 3-point underdog

• Central Michigan over Wyoming, 24-10, as a 1.5-point underdog

• James Madison over San Diego State, 26-13, as a 1.5-point underdog

Favorites that fell furthest short of the line

• Texas A&M, 26.5 points short against Kentucky

• Virginia, 21.5 points short against West Virginia

• Missouri, 17.5 points short in a 27-17 win over Troy

• Wyoming, 15.5 points short against Central Michigan

• San Diego State, 14.5 points short against James Madison

Favorites that beat the line by the most

• Northwestern, by 30.5 points, in a 41-7 win over Colorado

• Connecticut, by 25.0 points, over Southern Mississippi

• Iowa State, by 24.5 points, over Bowling Green

• Liberty, by 21.5 points, over Ball State

• Wisconsin, by 20.5 points, over Eastern Michigan

Rankings Talk

Three weeks in, the ratings are starting to separate teams.

• There are now 33 distinct ratings across the 138 teams, up from 12 a week ago

• 44 teams are still at 0.000, down from 97

• Florida is alone at No. 1 with a 0.667, and it is the only team above 0.500

That still leaves a lot of shared ranks, so the lower half of the list deserves a loose reading. The top is a different story.

Florida earned its spot in the week’s most entertaining game, a 44-39 win over Auburn that put 83 points on the board. Jon Sumrall, who came to Florida from Tulane, and Alex Golesh, who came to Auburn from South Florida, are both in their first seasons at their schools.

• Jadan Baugh ran for 162 yards and three touchdowns

• Florida’s other FBS win was a 66-21 rout of FAU

• FAU and Auburn are both 2-1, a combined 4-2

• Florida’s schedule so far is tied for the fifth toughest in the country

Behind Florida, tied at 0.500

• BYU

• Miami (FL)

• Northwestern, which has played only one FBS game, a 41-7 win over Colorado

• Texas

Conference movement, with last week’s rank in parentheses

• SEC, first (sixth), rating up from 0.206 to 0.374, with a 32-8 record against FBS teams

• Big Ten, second (first)

• Independents, third (fifth)

• ACC, fourth (second)

• Big 12, fifth (third)

• American, sixth (fourth)

• Pac-12, seventh (ninth)

• Mountain West, ninth (sixth)

The conference picture shows up in the top 25 too. Eight of the 26 teams come from the SEC and six from the Big Ten. No other conference has more than three, and the Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American have none.

Biggest risers, all of whom started the week at 0.000

• BYU, to 0.500

• Notre Dame, to 0.429

• Ole Miss, to 0.429

• Kentucky, to 0.416

• Louisville, to 0.400

• UCF, to 0.400

Those jumps mostly reflect teams whose opponents now have records to count. The fallers are more revealing.

Biggest fallers

• Indiana, from 0.500 to 0.167, still unbeaten, with FBS opponents North Texas and Western Kentucky combining for a 1-5 record

• SMU, from 0.500 to 0.200, after losing to Louisville

• Cincinnati, from 0.500 to 0.250, still unbeaten

• UCLA, from 0.333 to 0.167, still unbeaten

• FIU, from 0.334 to 0.190

• Nebraska, from 0.333 to 0.200, still unbeaten

Louisville 41, SMU 31 produced the biggest single swing

• Louisville went from 0.000 to 0.400 and now sits 11th

• SMU went from 0.500 to 0.200 and now sits 66th

The biggest gaps between the ratings and the scoreboard run in both directions. Kentucky is 10th in the ratings and 89th in average margin, while Georgia is first in average margin and 95th in the ratings. Margin ranks below are among the 133 teams with at least two FBS games.

Rating rank is higher than margin rank

• Marshall, 13th in the ratings, 102nd in average margin (-12.3)

• Kentucky, 10th in the ratings, 89th in average margin (-9.0)

• FAU, 22nd in the ratings, 96th in average margin (-10.3)

• Stanford, 41st in the ratings, 114th in average margin (-19.0)

• UTSA, 22nd in the ratings, 91st in average margin (-9.5)

• California, 28th in the ratings, 89th in average margin (-9.0)

• Louisiana, 21st in the ratings, 78th in average margin (-6.0)

• Oklahoma State, 15th in the ratings, 71st in average margin (-3.0)

Rating rank is lower than margin rank

• Georgia, 95th in the ratings, first in average margin (+39.0)

• Nebraska, 66th in the ratings, second in average margin (+38.5)

• Indiana, 78th in the ratings, third in average margin (+37.0)

• Utah, 95th in the ratings, sixth in average margin (+33.0)

• Tennessee, 95th in the ratings, eighth in average margin (+27.0)

• Pittsburgh, 78th in the ratings, 18th in average margin (+21.3)

• N.D. State, 86th in the ratings, 22nd in average margin (+17.7)

• Nevada, 92nd in the ratings, 31st in average margin (+14.0)

Where the ratings and the AP poll disagree most

Eleven of the AP’s 25 teams are also in the top 25 of the ratings.

The AP ranks the team higher

• Georgia, 2nd in the AP and 95th in the ratings

• Tennessee, 14th and 95th

• Utah, 15th and 95th

• Indiana, 5th and 78th

• SMU, 22nd and 66th

• Texas A&M, 23rd and 62nd

• Texas Tech, 11th and 41st

• Ohio State, 7th and 36th

The ratings rank the team higher

• Northwestern, not in the AP top 25 and 2nd in the ratings

• Florida, 21st in the AP and 1st in the ratings

• Kentucky, not in the AP top 25 and 10th in the ratings

• UCF, not in the AP top 25 and 11th in the ratings

• Marshall, not in the AP top 25 and 13th in the ratings

• Oklahoma, not in the AP top 25 and 13th in the ratings

• Michigan, 18th in the AP and 6th in the ratings

• Duke, not in the AP top 25 and 15th in the ratings

Georgia shows the split most clearly.

• 3-0 overall, and the best average scoring margin in the country at +39.0

• FBS wins over Western Kentucky (70-20) and Arkansas (45-17), whose combined FBS record is 0-5

• Its remaining schedule is the fourth toughest in the country

• Its next game is against Oklahoma, 13th in the ratings

Tennessee is at the same 0.000, and its FBS opponents, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State, are a combined 0-4.

Texas A&M shows what a scoreboard can and can’t tell you. The Aggies are 2-1 and 62nd in the ratings, tied with Wake Forest, and their first game looked like a statement.

September 12, Texas A&M 48, Arizona State 20

• A&M led 24-20 after three quarters, then outscored Arizona State 24-0 in the fourth

• 14 of those points came on interception returns, 55 yards by Marco Jones and 45 by Julio Humphrey

• Arizona State outgained A&M 369 yards to 255

Since then

• Arizona State beat Kansas 24-17 in London, in the inaugural Union Jack Classic at Wembley Stadium

• Kentucky beat A&M 31-21 at Kyle Field, its first win over Texas A&M since 1953

• The game was tied 7-7 at halftime, Kentucky scored 21 points in the third quarter, and A&M gained 20 yards in that quarter

• Kentucky is 10th in the ratings, and its average scoring margin of -9.0 ranks 89th among the 133 teams with at least two FBS games

So how much should that first A&M game have told us? The ingredients are all here.

The Rankings

Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically. Five teams tie for 22nd, so the top 25 runs to 26 teams. Records shown are overall records. The full ratings for all 138 teams are in the PDF attached to this post.

Top 25 Teams

1. Florida (SEC), 3-0, 0.667
2. BYU (Big 12), 3-0, 0.500
2. Miami (FL) (ACC), 3-0, 0.500
2. Northwestern (Big Ten), 2-0, 0.500
2. Texas (SEC), 3-0, 0.500
6. Michigan (Big Ten), 3-0, 0.429
6. Notre Dame (Independents), 3-0, 0.429
6. Ole Miss (SEC), 3-0, 0.429
9. LSU (SEC), 2-1, 0.417
10. Kentucky (SEC), 2-1, 0.416
11. Louisville (ACC), 2-1, 0.400
11. UCF (Big 12), 2-1, 0.400
13. Marshall (Sun Belt), 2-1, 0.381
13. Oklahoma (SEC), 2-1, 0.381
15. Alabama (SEC), 3-0, 0.375
15. Duke (ACC), 3-0, 0.375
15. Maryland (Big Ten), 2-1, 0.375
15. Oklahoma State (Big 12), 2-1, 0.375
19. Michigan State (Big Ten), 2-1, 0.371
20. USC (Big Ten), 4-0, 0.364
21. Louisiana (Sun Belt), 2-1, 0.357
22. Auburn (SEC), 2-1, 0.334
22. FAU (American), 2-1, 0.334
22. Fresno State (Pac-12), 2-1, 0.334
22. Illinois (Big Ten), 2-1, 0.334
22. UTSA (American), 2-1, 0.334

Conferences

1. SEC - 32-8 - .800 - Rating 0.374
2. Big Ten - 31-12 - .721 - Rating 0.330
3. Independents - 4-1 - .800 - Rating 0.291
4. ACC - 22-18 - .550 - Rating 0.287
5. Big 12 - 21-11 - .656 - Rating 0.274
6. American - 13-19 - .406 - Rating 0.244
7. Pac-12 - 5-13 - .278 - Rating 0.196
8. Sun Belt - 10-19 - .345 - Rating 0.180
9. Mountain West - 8-15 - .348 - Rating 0.174
10. Conference USA - 5-18 - .217 - Rating 0.129
11. Mid-American - 6-23 - .207 - Rating 0.113

Loose Ends

• Texas Tech 28, Houston 26 was decided by two points, and the two teams are now tied for 41st in the ratings.

• The best second halves so far, measured by points outscored after halftime in FBS games:

  • Texas, +56

  • LSU, +50

  • Alabama, +48

  • Penn State, +46

  • Notre Dame, +45

  • UCLA, +43

• The worst second halves so far:

  • UTEP, -56

  • Miami (OH), -53

  • Western Kentucky, -52

  • Kent State, -49

  • Ball State, -48

  • Eastern Michigan, -44

• UTEP has played the toughest schedule so far at 0.405, and it is 0-2 against FBS teams. Rice is second at 0.364, also 0-2.

• Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Utah, and Utah State are tied for the easiest schedule so far, all at 0.000.

• The toughest remaining schedules:

  • Mississippi State, 0.367

  • Oklahoma, 0.346

  • Ole Miss, 0.339

  • Georgia, 0.332

  • Missouri, 0.328

• All five of those teams are in the SEC. The ratings only count records, and the SEC has the best record against FBS teams at 32-8.

• Rutgers, 0-3, has the sixth-toughest remaining schedule at 0.327.

• The easiest remaining schedules:

  • Massachusetts, 0.046

  • Ohio, 0.052

  • Louisiana, 0.060

  • Connecticut, 0.061

  • Toledo, 0.065

• Only two teams have played four games and won them all, USC and North Dakota State.

• Seven teams are still winless at 0-3, Bowling Green, Charlotte, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, ULM, Utah State, and Western Kentucky.

Looking Ahead

Here are the top 10 games for Week 4, ranked by the ratings, with each team’s ratings rank in parentheses. All times are Central.

1. Ole Miss (6) at Florida (1), Saturday, 2:30 PM

2. South Carolina (28) at Alabama (15), Saturday, 6:00 PM

3. Iowa (41) at Michigan (6), Saturday, 2:30 PM

4. Illinois (22) at Ohio State (36), Saturday, 11:00 AM

5. Oklahoma State (15) at West Virginia (41), Saturday, 6:00 PM

6. Texas A&M (62) at LSU (9), Saturday, 6:30 PM

7. Oregon (41) at USC (20), Saturday, 6:30 PM

8. Boise State (28) at Western Michigan (28), Saturday, 2:30 PM

9. Wake Forest (62) at Louisville (11), Saturday, 11:00 AM

10. Clemson (36) at California (28), Friday, 9:30 PM

The top game pairs the No. 1 team in the ratings against the No. 6 team, and Ole Miss has the third-toughest remaining schedule, so the result will move both numbers for weeks. Texas A&M at LSU is the sequel to the A&M question above.

For the full weekend, watch for Friday’s Weekend Viewing Guide. It breaks the slate into time windows and lists the top four games in each one.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

Fifty-six games make the cut this week, and three of them pit two ranked teams against each other: LSU-Ole Miss, Houston-Texas Tech, and SMU-Louisville. That’s the most crowded ranked-versus-ranked slate we’ve had all season. Elsewhere, Texas is the new unanimous #1 with all 56 first-place votes and hosts UTSA, while Ohio State, knocked all the way from #1 to #6 after last week’s loss, gets a home date with Kent State to start rebuilding the case.

One quick note: game selections are still pulled from the AP Poll for now. The Precedent Ratings take over once there’s enough data to actually differentiate teams. Betting lines reflect the market as of Thursday, when this guide was put together, so keep an eye out for late movement.

All times Central

Game of the Week

#7 LSU at #8 Ole Miss — Saturday, 6:30 PM, ABC

Both teams are 2-0 and riding two-game win streaks, but the numbers tell two different stories about how they got there. LSU’s average margin against FBS opponents is a staggering +36.0 per game, more than double Ole Miss’s +17.5. The market agrees LSU is the better team even on the road, installing the Tigers as a 3-point favorite with the over/under at 58.5.

Friday Evening

Avg. Game Rank: 5.5

• (2) Houston (22) at Texas Tech (13) — Texas Tech -7.5, O/U 52.5 — 7:00 PM, FOX

• (9) Miami (FL) (5) at Wake Forest (NR) — Miami -20.5, O/U 56.5 — 6:30 PM, ESPN

Texas Tech slipped a spot to #13 despite starting 2-0, but it’s still favored at home over a Houston team that’s climbed to #22 on a modest +13.0-per-game margin. The bigger story is Miami, up two spots to #5 after quadrupling its first-place votes from one to four, laying 20.5 points on the road at an unbeaten but unranked Wake Forest team. That’s the most dominant scoring margin of anyone in this window at +39.0 per game.

Friday After Dark

Avg. Game Rank: 64.0

• (64) Portland State at Oregon (21) — Oregon -57.5, O/U 67.5 — 9:30 PM, BTN

Oregon closes out Friday as a 57.5-point favorite over FCS Portland State. Nobody’s watching this for competitiveness, but if you want a look at the Ducks before Saturday’s bigger slate, it’s on BTN.

Saturday Early

Avg. Game Rank: 15.0

• (6) Georgia (2) at Arkansas (NR) — Georgia -24.5, O/U 54.5 — 11:00 AM, ABC

• (10) Kent State (NR) at Ohio State (6) — Ohio State -52.5, O/U 58.5 — 11:00 AM, FOX

• (15) Buffalo (NR) at Penn State (14) — Penn State -40.5, O/U 49.5 — 11:00 AM, BTN

• (29) Tulane (NR) at Kansas State (NR) — Kansas State -20.5, O/U 49.5 — 11:00 AM, ESPN2

Georgia’s +50.0-per-game margin is the best of any team playing this weekend, and Vegas has the Bulldogs by 24.5 on the road against a reeling Arkansas team that just dropped to 1-1. Ohio State is a 52.5-point favorite at home over Kent State, about as clean a get-right spot as the schedule makers could have handed them after last week. Penn State and Kansas State, both 2-0, round out the window as heavy home favorites over losing opponents.

Saturday Afternoon

Avg. Game Rank: 6.5

• (3) SMU (16) at Louisville (23) — Louisville -1.5, O/U 58.5 — 2:30 PM, ESPN2

• (4) Mississippi St. (NR) at South Carolina (NR) — South Carolina -4.0, O/U 58.5 — 3:15 PM, SEC Network

• (8) Western Kentucky (NR) at Indiana (4) — Indiana -44.5, O/U 60.5 — 3:00 PM, Peacock

• (11) Kentucky (NR) at Texas A&M (9) — Texas A&M -17.5, O/U 50.5 — 2:30 PM, ESPN

The closest line of the week lives in this window: SMU at Louisville is a virtual pick’em at 1.5 points, even though SMU carries the better record. South Carolina’s +57.0-per-game margin is actually the single best number on the board this week, bigger than Georgia’s, and yet the Gamecocks are favored by only 4 over an equally unbeaten Mississippi State. Indiana is the biggest favorite in this window at -44.5 over Western Kentucky.

Saturday Evening

Avg. Game Rank: 6.5

• (1) LSU (7) at Ole Miss (8) — LSU -3.0, O/U 58.5 — 6:30 PM, ABC — see Game of the Week

• (5) UTSA (NR) at Texas (1) — Texas -30.5, O/U 58.5 — 7:00 PM, SECN+

• (7) Michigan State (NR) at Notre Dame (3) — Notre Dame -29.5, O/U 52.5 — 6:30 PM, NBC

• (13) BYU (11) at Colorado State (NR) — BYU -17.5, O/U 52.5 — 6:30 PM, CBS

The Game of the Week anchors this window. New #1 Texas is a 30.5-point favorite over an also-unbeaten UTSA team, and #3 Notre Dame lays 29.5 at home on Michigan State. BYU is a 17.5-point road favorite at Colorado State, the only game in this window where a ranked team is the underdog on the schedule.

Saturday After Dark

Avg. Game Rank: 26.5

• (25) Purdue (NR) at UCLA (NR) — UCLA -14.0, O/U 52.5 — 10:00 PM, BTN

• (26) James Madison (NR) at San Diego State (NR) — San Diego State -1.5, O/U 46.5 — 9:00 PM, CW

• (27) Northern Illinois (NR) at Arizona (NR) — Arizona -33.5, O/U 49.5 — 9:30 PM, TNT

• (28) N.D. State (NR) at Sacramento St. (NR) — N.D. State -27.5, O/U 50.5 — 9:30 PM, ESPN

None of these four are ranked, but the numbers still tell a story. James Madison is favored on the road despite San Diego State’s home field advantage, and North Dakota State, the only 3-0 team in this entire window, is a 27.5-point road favorite over a Sacramento State team that’s already slipped to 1-2.

By the Numbers

Fifty-two teams are still unbeaten entering the weekend. Twelve games this weekend pit two unbeaten teams against each other, and eight of those involve a ranked team:

• LSU at Ole Miss

• Houston at Texas Tech

• UTSA at Texas

• Michigan State at Notre Dame

• Miami (FL) at Wake Forest

• BYU at Colorado State

• Troy at Missouri

• West Virginia at Virginia

Lines to watch this week:

• Biggest line: Kent State at Ohio State, 52.5

• Highest total: FIU at FAU and North Texas at Texas State, both O/U 62.5

• Lowest total: Wyoming at Central Michigan, O/U 38.5

• Closest line of the week, a three-way tie at 1.5 points: SMU at Louisville, James Madison at San Diego State, and Wyoming at Central Michigan

• Upset alert: #16 SMU is a 1.5-point underdog to #23 Louisville

• Hot start: the longest active win streak in the country is three games, shared by USC and North Dakota State

Sleeper of the Week

North Dakota State at Sacramento State, Saturday at 9:30 PM. The Bison are the only 3-0 team in the entire late window and they’re a 27.5-point road favorite, yet this game is buried at the bottom of the slate where almost nobody will find it.

Storyline to Watch

Ohio State getting a 52.5-point cushion against Kent State a week after falling from #1 to #6 is about as favorable a bounce-back spot as the schedule allows. The scoreboard should take care of itself. The real question is whether this team looks like a top-six squad doing it, or a shaken one just padding a stat line.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

Weekend Recap

Two games reordered the season this weekend, one in Austin and one in Stillwater.

Texas trailed Ohio State 23-3 entering the fourth quarter. Then the Longhorns scored 21 unanswered points to win 24-23, capped by a touchdown with 25 seconds left. Down three scores and out of easy options, Steve Sarkisian’s staff started attacking on fourth down, converting twice from their own territory to keep the comeback alive. On the other sideline, Ryan Day made two more measured calls: a punt from Texas’s 39 while up 20, then a decision not to concede a late Texas touchdown that would have given Ohio State more time to answer. Both were defensible in the moment. Together, they’re the kind of sequence that gets replayed all season if Ohio State’s ceiling doesn’t match its record. One caution worth keeping in mind: it’s tempting to say any single decision cost Ohio State the game, but change one snap and the rest of the game plays out differently too. Everything downstream shifts, the same way one changed moment rewrites the whole future in Back to the Future. The four-point margin matters. Assigning it to one play doesn’t tell the whole story.

Oklahoma State’s story needed its own kind of context. Entering the day as 22.5-point underdogs against No. 6 Oregon, the Cowboys instead won 39-31, outgaining the Ducks 554 to 281. It capped a nearly two-year FBS drought: Oklahoma State snapped a 12-game overall losing streak and a 21-game skid against FBS opponents, a run that stretched back to 2024. According to NCAA.com, no team had previously ended a losing streak of 10 or more games by beating a top-10 opponent. Oregon, meanwhile, needed a late push just to escape Boise State in Week 1. Two weeks in, a team many expected to contend for a national title hasn’t looked like the dominant roster it was built to be.

Michigan’s win fits the same pattern from the other direction. After a shaky Week 1 escape, the Wolverines beat Oklahoma 17-10 behind a defense that held John Mateer to 17 of 33 passing and a run-heavy offensive plan that leaned on Bryce Underwood. It’s an early sign of what Michigan under Kyle Whittingham might look like: tight, physical, and built to win in the trenches rather than the air.

Rankings Talk

Here’s the honest state of the ratings two weeks in: 97 of 138 FBS teams share the exact same rating, 0.0. That’s not a bug. The formula multiplies win percentage by opponent win percentage, and with most teams sitting at 1-1 or 2-0 against similarly thin schedules, there simply isn’t enough separation yet. The raw records tell more of the story right now than the math does.

And the honest state of the season is just as unsettled. Is Oregon actually a mediocre team, or a good one playing two rough weeks? Is the version of Michigan and Oklahoma State we saw in Week 2 the real one, or was Week 1 closer to the truth? Nobody knows yet, and that’s fine. Four of the preseason AP Top 25 have already lost, and notably, all four lost to other ranked or receiving-votes opponents, not outsiders. The chaos so far is coming from the top of the sport beating on itself, not from unranked teams sneaking up on anybody.

Conference ratings, unlike team ratings, do have enough data to mean something. The Big Ten sits at No. 1 despite not having the best raw win percentage in the country. That distinction belongs to the SEC, at 0.875 in FBS games, and yet the SEC sits down at No. 6 in the conference ratings. The gap comes down to strength of schedule: the SEC has simply beaten up on weaker competition so far. It’s a good reminder that a gaudy record and a strong resume aren’t always the same thing this early in the year.

The Rankings

A few things worth pulling out of this week’s numbers:

Duke, quietly, is No. 1. Not in the AP poll, not in anyone’s playoff conversation, but in the numbers. Duke sits atop the internal ratings at 2-0, while Georgia, Miami, Alabama, and a few dozen other teams everyone’s actually talking about are stuck in a massive logjam at 41st. That’s not a knock on the formula. It’s what happens two weeks into a season when strength of schedule hasn’t separated anyone yet. But it’s also a reminder that the teams getting the headlines aren’t necessarily the teams with the resumes, at least not yet.

Oklahoma State went from irrelevant to No. 9 in one Saturday. A week ago the Cowboys were buried near the bottom after losing to Tulsa. One win over Oregon later, they’re inside the top ten. That’s either a sign the ratings are working exactly as designed, rewarding a genuinely great win, or a reminder of how violently the numbers can swing on a single game this early. Probably both.

Oregon’s loss didn’t sink them nearly as far as you’d think. Despite getting outgained by nearly 300 yards in Stillwater, the Ducks are still sitting at 29, not buried near triple digits. A win is still a win in this system, and Oregon’s is over a team that just cracked the top ten. It’s a good early example of how the ratings try to separate a bad loss from a loss to a team that turned out to be good.

Northwestern is 1-0 and ranked dead last. That one sounds like a bug. It isn’t. The Wildcats’ only game so far was a win over South Dakota State, an FCS opponent, followed by a bye in week 2. The ratings formula only counts games against FBS teams, on purpose, so a win over an FCS opponent doesn’t inflate anyone’s number. That leaves Northwestern with zero FBS games played, which means their win percentage isn’t zero. It’s undefined, since there’s nothing to divide. The system has to put that team somewhere, and it drops them to the very bottom, the same spot you’d expect from a team confirmed to be bad. Northwestern hasn’t been proven bad. They just haven’t played anyone the formula can count yet. Once they face Colorado in week 3, they’ll get a real number and move off the floor immediately. Worth remembering any time a team looks buried early in the season: last place doesn’t always mean worst team. Sometimes it just means no data yet.

Want access to the detailed ratings? Subscribe for free today.

Subscribe now

Loose Ends

• Kentucky and Alabama traded pick-sixes to open scoring. Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace’s 2-yard return got Kentucky on the board first, and Alabama’s Luke Metz answered with a 34-yard return on the very next possession.

• Broadcasters spent the Texas-Ohio State fourth quarter insisting Texas didn’t want to take the lead too soon, and that Ohio State might’ve wanted to let Texas score to get the ball back with time. Both assume a level of command over in-game outcomes that a live fumble in the middle of that exact sequence undercut.

• Sam Leavitt threw three interceptions and LSU still won 45-14 over Louisiana Tech.

• Iowa beat Iowa State 16-13 on a 42-yard Caden Buhr field goal with 15 seconds left, the Hawkeyes’ first win in the Cy-Hawk series since 2021. Worth noting what Iowa State is working with this year: head coach Matt Campbell left for Penn State in the offseason and took roughly 20 players with him, including starting quarterback Rocco Becht. A nearly rebuilt Cyclones roster under new coach Jimmy Rogers still made this a one-score game that came down to the final seconds.

• USC’s Jayden Maiava threw five touchdown passes in a 49-30 win over Louisiana.

• James Madison’s special teams put on a show against Wagner: a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, plus two separate punt-return touchdowns in the same game.

• Steve Sarkisian capped a live sideline interview by shouting “Texas fight!”

• Akron let a season-ticket holder script its opening drive against Robert Morris, following borrowed Nick Saban advice: get the call in early, stay ahead of the sticks, and don’t get cute. The script drove Akron to the Robert Morris 37 before a fumble ended the possession at four plays. Head coach Joe Moorhead publicly took the blame himself, and Akron went on to win 45-10 anyway.

• Washington needed a late stop to beat Utah State 16-14, another ranked team that survived rather than made a statement.

• North Dakota State is off to a 3-0 start in its debut season in the rebuilt Mountain West, including a win over Air Force for their first conference victory as an FBS program. North Dakota State and USC are the only two teams sitting at 3-0 this early, a game ahead of most of the country.

• Georgia’s 70 points against Western Kentucky led the country this week, ahead of Nebraska’s 56 and Notre Dame’s 52.

• Four games this weekend were decided by two points or fewer: Ohio’s 29-27 win over Jacksonville State, Marshall’s 28-26 win over Middle Tennessee, Washington’s 16-14 win over Utah State, and Iowa’s 16-13 win over Iowa State.

• The rebuilt Pac-12 is off to a combined 3-10 start through two weeks, the worst mark of any conference outside Conference USA and the Mid-American.

Games to Watch — Week 3

LSU (#7) at Ole Miss (#8) — the clear Game of the Week, the only matchup between two ranked teams. LSU has climbed from a preseason #11 on the strength of blowout wins, and it’s worth watching whether Sam Leavitt cleans up the three-interception game from this week against a quality SEC defense, or whether it costs LSU this time.

Houston (#22) at Texas Tech (#13) — Houston has actually posted the bigger scoring margin of the two so far this season, despite sitting lower in the poll than Texas Tech. Worth watching whether that gap shows up on the field.

SMU (#16) at Louisville (#23) — SMU has climbed from a preseason #19 and arrives unbeaten, while Louisville enters 1-1 after already dropping a game despite its own preseason ranking. Another data point in the week’s larger theme: nobody’s resume is settled yet.

Mississippi State (receiving votes) at South Carolina (receiving votes) — both teams came into the season unranked and have forced their way into the conversation at 2-0, with South Carolina actually running up the bigger scoring margin of the two.

One more worth a mention outside the top four: Michigan State is unranked but 2-0 with a real point differential, and they’re headed to Notre Dame. That’s the kind of game that could look very different by Tuesday than it does on paper today.

Look for Friday’s Weekend Viewing Guide, with the top four games in each TV window.

Looking Ahead

It’s worth remembering how differently a result like Oregon’s or Oklahoma’s would have played out just a few years ago. In the four-team playoff era, a Week 2 loss to an unranked team was close to a knockout blow. Surviving that kind of loss and still making the field was a tall order.

The 12-team format changes that math substantially. There’s simply more room now. A one-loss team with a strong resume the rest of the way still has a real path, especially in a conference like the Big Ten or SEC where quality wins are available all season. Oregon and Oklahoma both have time to write a different ending to this story, and neither result from this weekend needs to define their season the way it might have in 2023.

That’s not a reason to wave off what happened. It’s a reason to watch how these two teams respond over the next month, rather than trying to draw a conclusion today. The bigger field was built to allow for exactly this kind of early stumble. Whether it actually changes the outcome for teams like Oregon and Oklahoma is the more interesting question, and one we won’t have an answer to for a while yet.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

One quick note: these rankings are pulled from the AP Poll for now. The Precedent College Football Ratings take over in the coming weeks, once there’s enough game data to make them meaningful.

* All times Central

Game of the Week

#1 Ohio State at #4 Texas - Saturday, 6:30 PM, ABC

Every single first-place vote in the country belongs to Ohio State right now, and the Buckeyes are taking that unanimous ranking on the road to a Texas team that jumped a spot to #4 after its own opener. Both sides are 1-0. Nothing else on the board this week even pretends to be a matchup between two ranked teams. If you watch one game, this is it.

Friday Evening

Avg. Game Rank: 32.0

(19) - Missouri (23) at Kansas (NR) - 7:00 PM, FOX
(45) - Rutgers (NR) at Boston College (NR) - 6:30 PM, ESPN2

Missouri climbed two spots after its opener, but like Kansas, that win came against an FCS opponent, so Friday is really the first look at either team against real competition. Rutgers-Boston College is the rougher watch of the two: both teams are 0-1 with no poll support on either side, and it’s on the slate mostly because someone had to fill the window.

Saturday Early

Avg. Game Rank: 5.0

(2) - Oklahoma (11) at Michigan (28) - 11:00 AM, FOX
(4) - Arizona State (41) at Texas A&M (10) - 11:00 AM, ABC
(6) - Western Kentucky (NR) at Georgia (2) - 11:45 AM, SEC Network
(8) - Oregon (6) at Oklahoma State (NR) - 11:00 AM, ESPN

Oklahoma heads into Ann Arbor against a Michigan team that fell all the way out of the numbered rankings this week, a rough landing for a squad that opened the season at #16. This is Michigan’s chance to argue the drop happened too fast. Down in College Station, Arizona State visits a Texas A&M team that slid two spots to #10. Georgia hosting Western Kentucky is as lopsided as it looks on paper. The one worth circling back to is Oregon at Oklahoma State: the Ducks actually won their opener and still fell four spots, which tells you the voters wanted more proof before trusting them again.

Saturday Afternoon

Avg. Game Rank: 6.5

(3) - Arizona (29) at BYU (15) - 2:30 PM, FOX
(5) - Memphis (30) at Boise State (26) - 5:00 PM, USA Network
(7) - Rice (NR) at Notre Dame (3) - 2:30 PM, NBC
(11) - Alabama (12) at Kentucky (NR) - 2:30 PM, ABC

Arizona carries only a handful of votes into Provo against a BYU team settling in at #15. Rice at Notre Dame is a lopsided road trip for a Fighting Irish team that moved up to #3. Alabama’s visit to Kentucky is its first real road test of the year after climbing a spot itself. But the one to actually watch is Memphis at Boise State, buried in this window without a numbered rank on either side. Memphis is a perfect 2-0, a full game ahead of most of the country, and nobody’s talking about it yet.

Saturday Evening

Avg. Game Rank: 8.0

(1) - Ohio State (1) at Texas (4) - 6:30 PM, ABC - see Game of the Week
(9) - Louisiana Tech (NR) at LSU (8) - 6:30 PM, SECN+
(10) - Charlotte (NR) at Ole Miss (9) - 6:45 PM, ESPN2
(12) - Texas Tech (13) at Oregon State (NR) - 6:30 PM, CBS

LSU jumped three spots to #8 this week, the biggest riser inside the current top ten, and hosts Louisiana Tech in what should be a comfortable step up in national standing. Ole Miss is a home favorite over Charlotte, holding steady at #9. Texas Tech slipped a spot to #13 and heads on the road against an unranked Oregon State squad.

Saturday After Dark

Avg. Game Rank: 24.0

(13) - Louisiana (NR) at USC (14) - 10:00 PM, BTN
(17) - Arkansas (NR) at Utah (20) - 9:15 PM, ESPN
(28) - North Dakota State (NR) at Air Force (NR) - 9:00 PM, FS1
(38) - Sacramento State (NR) at Fresno State (NR) - 9:30 PM, CBSSN

USC is the only 2-0 team on the board in this entire window, but don’t mistake that for a marquee matchup. Louisiana carries no poll presence at all. Arkansas travels to a Utah team that nudged up a spot to #20. The late slate closes with North Dakota State-Air Force and Sacramento State-Fresno State, four teams with zero poll standing between them.

Sleeper of the Week

Memphis at Boise State, Saturday at 5:00 PM. Perfect record, real production, and almost nobody outside Memphis is paying attention yet. Worth the flip during a commercial break in a bigger game.

Storyline to Watch

Michigan falling out of the rankings entirely after a preseason #16 slot is the most interesting subplot of the weekend, and it has nothing to do with the scoreboard. A ranked win over Oklahoma changes that conversation fast. A loss, and the questions about this Michigan team start sounding a lot louder.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

Weekend Recap

One housekeeping note before diving in: this recap and this week’s numbers cover games played through Saturday. Three more Week 1 games are still ahead as of this writing, Washington State at Washington, Louisville against Ole Miss in Nashville, and Wisconsin against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, all on Sunday, plus one more Monday night. Those results will show up in next week’s numbers rather than this week’s. Consider this the first 47 games of Week 1, not the whole picture.

Week 1 did what Week 1 is supposed to do so far. Across those 47 games and 2,389 combined points, it exposed who actually built something during the offseason and who is still running on reputation. Home teams won at an 80.9 percent clip, and only 10 of the 47 games, about one in five, were decided by a single score. Most weekends aren’t this lopsided this early.

Start in Baton Rouge, where Lane Kiffin’s LSU debut turned into the sport’s first real statement game. Sam Leavitt threw for 230 yards and ran for 113 more with two scores on the ground, and LSU’s defense held Clemson to one first down in the entire first half. The final was 51-10, LSU’s fourth straight opening-week win over a program that used to define the sport, and Clemson has now dropped four consecutive season openers without scoring more than 10 points in any of them. That’s not a slow start anymore. That’s a pattern.

The game carried an extra layer of theater. A Louisiana judge had granted an injunction clearing former Ole Miss players Dae’Quan Wright and Zxavian Harris to return to college football at LSU. The SEC didn’t just object. It sued. On Thursday, the conference filed suit against LSU, Kiffin, and university leadership in federal court in Alabama, accusing the program of running a “deliberate and coordinated campaign” to recruit players who’d already signed NFL contracts. Kiffin left both players off the roster for the opener anyway, unwilling to test the SEC’s patience before the legal fight plays out. He didn’t need them. LSU led 31-3 at halftime, and when ESPN’s Holly Rowe wrapped an interview with him at the break, Kiffin walked away, then turned back to a hot mic and said, “Imagine if we had pro players.” He’d also used the two-hour weather delay to his advantage, refusing to shorten Clemson’s stay in the visitors’ locker room. “That locker room sucks over there,” he said afterward, treating the discomfort as a legitimate part of the game plan.

Michigan needed a much stranger path to 1-0. Trailing Western Michigan 12-7 in the final seconds, Bryce Underwood’s first Hail Mary sailed out of the end zone with the clock reading zeroes. Officials reviewed it, put one second back on, and Underwood connected with Utah transfer JJ Buchanan on the second attempt to win it, 13-12. Western Michigan played the better game for nearly sixty minutes. The extra second is the part people will remember.

Oregon needed 378 yards and three touchdowns from Dante Moore, including a 62-yard go-ahead strike, to get past Boise State 34-27. The Ducks survived. Boise State looked like a team that could cause real problems for someone in the playoff picture later this year.

Everyone else with something to prove mostly proved it. Ohio State ran up 56 points on Ball State behind Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. Texas put up 59 on Texas State, with Arch Manning throwing four touchdowns. Miami’s Darian Mensah threw for 401 yards and five scores in a 45-6 rout of Stanford. Georgia, Alabama, Penn State, Texas A&M and Iowa all posted comfortable wins that told you exactly what you expected to hear.

Not everyone got the easy version of Week 1. Auburn survived a Baylor two-point try at the goal line to win 17-16. Colorado beat Georgia Tech 14-13 on a blocked field goal as time expired Thursday. And Rutgers, reportedly paying $1.55 million to host a home opener, lost to UMass, a 29.5-point underdog that hadn’t won a game in sixteen tries.

Rankings Talk

Since this is the first issue where numbers show up alongside the writing, it’s worth explaining what you’re actually looking at.

Starting this season, The Precedent is tracking its own ranking system for college football, the Precedent College Football Ratings, built from a simple formula: a team’s win percentage multiplied by the win percentage of the teams it’s played. The idea is to reward teams for beating good opponents, not just for winning games against whoever happened to be on the schedule. A team that goes 3-0 against three good teams should rate differently than a team that goes 3-0 against three bad ones. That’s the whole premise, and over the course of a season it tends to separate the teams that are actually good from the teams that just look good on paper.

One thing worth being clear about up front: the score of the game doesn’t matter to this formula, only the result. The objective is to win, not to cover a point spread, so a team that wins by one point gets treated exactly the same as a team that wins by fifty. Blowouts don’t earn bonus credit and close calls don’t get penalized. Winning is winning.

Here’s the catch for week one specifically: the formula can’t do its job yet. Week 1 actually spans two separate weekends of games, so a handful of teams, Memphis and USC among them, have already played twice. But that’s still a small enough group that it doesn’t move the needle. Almost every team is sitting at either 1.0 times 0.0, if they won, or 0.0 times something, if they lost. Nobody has played a big enough slate yet for the math to tell anyone apart. That’s not a bug and it’s not the system failing on its debut. It just needs more games in the bank before it can carry real signal, and from that point on, this section is where the actual numbers get discussed.

For now, what we can talk about honestly is the raw win-loss record, and that tells its own story. The SEC went a perfect 9-0 in Week 1’s first 47 games. The Big Ten went 12-1. Every other conference finished with a losing or middling record, and the newly reconstituted eight-team Pac-12, the one that added Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State and Texas State, opened its first season together at a rough 1-4.

The preseason poll held up better than the weekend’s chaos would suggest. Not a single team in the preseason AP Top 25 has lost yet, and USC is the only ranked team already sitting at 2-0. The bigger story is what happened just outside the rankings. Ten teams that received preseason votes without cracking the Top 25 have already played, and nine of them lost. Clemson picked up 112 votes and is 0-1. Boise State (43 votes), TCU (11), Oklahoma State (8), Georgia Tech (4), California (2), Liberty (1), Tulane (1), and Western Michigan (1) all opened 0-1 as well. UNLV (4 votes) is the only one of the bunch that’s even 1-1. That’s about as clean a gap between “ranked” and “almost ranked” as you’ll see all year.

The Rankings

Conference standings by raw record (FBS games only), Week 1

• SEC: 9-0 (1.000)

• Big Ten: 12-1 (0.923)

• ACC: 8-6 (0.571)

• Big 12: 4-3 (0.571)

• American: 4-5 (0.444)

• Mountain West: 5-7 (0.417)

• Sun Belt: 2-4 (0.333)

• Pac-12: 1-4 (0.200)

• Mid-American: 2-10 (0.167)

• Conference USA: 0-7 (0.000)

Team ratings will show up here once there’s enough separation in the data to say something meaningful. With 51 of 138 teams still waiting on their opener, that’s likely another week or two out.

Loose Ends

• Indiana’s Josh Hoover played through a bloody face and still threw four touchdowns in the defending champs’ opener.

• Hawaii is the only team in the country sitting at 0-2. Everyone else who’s lost has only played once.

• Memphis and USC are the only two teams at 2-0.

• Florida scored more points than anyone in Week 1, putting up 66. Mississippi State (62), Texas (59) and Pittsburgh (59) followed.

• Three FCS teams beat FBS opponents: The Citadel over Charlotte in triple overtime, Tarleton State at Bowling Green, and Idaho State at Utah State.

• The scoreboard took a beating elsewhere too. Louisiana Tech hung 80 on Northwestern State, Virginia Tech put up 73 on VMI, and Kansas State beat Nicholls 71-3.

• Arkansas’ mascot Tusk VII sat out a heat-advisory opener, and a game elsewhere ended in a tie when a 108-degree heat index made overtime untenable.

• FBS newcomer North Dakota State opened 1-0. Fellow newcomer Sacramento State opened 0-1.

Looking Ahead

Ohio State and Texas both did exactly what they were supposed to do against overmatched openers, which sets up the first real test of the season. The two meet next Saturday in Austin, and it’s the first game all year where nobody can hide behind a soft schedule. That’s where Weekend Precedent picks back up next week.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop