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Weekend Recap
Florida was one of seven teams to lose its unbeaten record this week, and the number of unbeaten teams dropped from 22 to 15. Cincinnati, Florida, Iowa, Massachusetts, Mississippi State, South Florida and Virginia Tech all took a first loss. Winless teams slipped from four to three.
By the numbers
56 FBS-vs-FBS games were played, up from the season average of 53.8 per week through week 4.
22 of those 56 games (39%) were decided by one score, compared with 33% last week and a season average of 33%.
Home teams won 30 of 56 (54%), against a season average of 68%. The weekly home win rate has gone 82%, 67%, 70%, 53% and now 54%.
The average combined score was 52.8 points, up from 50.9 last week and just above the season average of 52.4.
Favorites won 40 of the 56 games with a betting line and covered 27, with one push. Sixteen underdogs won outright.
Favorites by fewer than 7 points won only 14 of 27 games and missed the number by 4.6 points on average. Favorites by 14 to 24.5 points won all 14 of theirs.
11 games were won by the team trailing at halftime, 4 by a team trailing entering the fourth quarter, and 3 went to overtime.
Missouri 45, Florida 17. Florida arrived in Columbia unbeaten, first in the ratings and favored by 5.5 points. Missouri won by 28, which beat the line by 33.5. The game was tied 3-3 after one quarter. Missouri led 20-10 at halftime and 30-10 after three, and outscored Florida 15-7 in the fourth. Jamal Roberts ran 24 times for 211 yards and three touchdowns, including an 80-yard score in the fourth quarter, and Austin Simmons threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Missouri finished with 560 yards and snapped a nine-game losing streak against ranked opponents. Florida’s rating fell from 0.750 to 0.529, which moved the Gators from first to fourth. Their four FBS opponents are a combined 12-5 against FBS teams, which kept the rating in the top five. Missouri’s rating rose from 0.371 to 0.450, a jump from 22nd to 10th. The AP poll moved Missouri from 25th to 14th and Florida from 8th to 16th. Missouri’s only loss this season came a week earlier, 31-24 at Mississippi State, a game the Tigers led 24-17 after three quarters.
Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. Both teams entered unbeaten, and Alabama scored 14 points in every quarter. Mississippi State turned the ball over three times, and Alabama turned all three into points, including a 30-yard interception return by Dijon Lee Jr. Keelon Russell threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another score, and Alabama outrushed Mississippi State 179 yards to 18. Alabama has now scored at least 45 points in all five of its games (48, 45, 50, 49 and 56). It was favored by 5.5 and covered by 27.5. Its rating rose from 0.417 to 0.550, a jump from 14th to 3rd. Mississippi State went from 14th to 8th even with the loss, because its opponents’ combined FBS win percentage rose from .417 to .571 once 5-0 Alabama joined its record. Alabama’s 33-point win came in the same stadium where Missouri lost by 7 the week before.
Pittsburgh 35, Virginia Tech 33. Both teams were 4-0 on Friday night, and Pitt won as a 2.5-point underdog, beating the line by 4.5. The 68 total points cleared the 54.5 over/under by 13.5. Virginia Tech led 14-0 early, Pitt took a 28-24 lead into the fourth, and Virginia Tech was held scoreless in the third quarter. Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for a career-high 434 yards and Virginia Tech outgained Pitt 499-295, but the Hokies had four turnovers to none, and Pitt scored 14 points off them. On the final drive, Virginia Tech went from its own 20 to the Pitt 18, and John Love’s field goal try missed wide left as time expired. Pitt (5-0) sits 6th in the ratings and Virginia Tech (4-1) is 49th.
Northwestern 34, Penn State 13. Northwestern led after every quarter (10-0, 24-7, 31-7) and ran for 413 yards, with Caleb Komolafe rushing for 188 and Joseph Himon II for 162 on just 10 carries. Aidan Chiles threw for 93 yards. Penn State was a 2.5-point favorite and lost by 21, its largest loss of the season, so Northwestern beat the line by 23.5. Northwestern’s rating moved from 0.334 (27th) to 0.410 (15th), and Penn State’s went from 0.273 (47th) to 0.266 (55th). Northwestern’s only loss was 29-23 at Indiana on Sept. 25. Indiana led that game 12-0 at halftime, and Northwestern outscored the Hoosiers 16-14 in the fourth quarter. Northwestern’s 23 points are the most any team has scored on Indiana this season. The next most is 16, and Indiana’s other three FBS wins came by 36, 38 and 32 points.
Kentucky 35, South Carolina 34 (OT). Kentucky trailed 14-0 after one quarter and 20-10 at halftime, and it was a 2.5-point underdog. Kenny Minchey threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns, and a 66-yard drive ending in a 29-yard field goal with 4:13 left tied the game at 27. South Carolina scored first in overtime. Kentucky answered with a 6-yard touchdown pass and went for two rather than kick the extra point, and Minchey’s pass to Willie Rodriguez won it. LaNorris Sellers ran for 147 yards for the Gamecocks. Kentucky is 7th in the ratings at 0.458, and South Carolina is 86th.
Houston 27, UCF 17. UCF led 10-0 at halftime and 17-0 late in the third quarter, and then Houston scored the game’s last 27 points. Conner Weigman, who was sick, ran for three touchdowns, all in the second half, and Houston held UCF to 48 yards in the fourth quarter. UCF’s rating fell from 0.445 to 0.344, dropping it from 7th to 29th. Houston is 13th at 0.422.
Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20. This was the week’s largest line upset. Bowling Green came in 0-4 and won as a 10.5-point underdog on Leo Kemp’s 2-yard touchdown run with seven seconds left. Miami (OH) led 20-17, and Bowling Green went 75 yards in 10 plays over the last 1:47. Jay Kastantin threw for 305 yards. Bowling Green’s rating went from 0.000 to 0.156 (95th), and Miami (OH) fell from 54th to 102nd.
Other results. Minnesota beat Michigan 20-14 after trailing 14-10 entering the fourth quarter. Notre Dame won 37-26 at North Carolina to move to 5-0, with all five wins by at least 11 points. San Diego State came back from 14 down to beat Texas State 31-29 as a 9.5-point underdog, and Purdue won 24-17 at Illinois as a 10-point underdog. Baylor won 55-19 at Arizona State, a 36-point margin that left Arizona State, a 3.5-point favorite, 39.5 points short of the line, the largest miss of the week. Miami (FL) beat Clemson 41-13, Georgia beat Vanderbilt 38-14 (the Commodores covered the 25.5-point line by 1.5), Ohio State beat Iowa 31-14, Wisconsin beat Michigan State 31-3, and Wake Forest beat Stanford 57-3. USC beat Washington 25-21, Arizona beat Cincinnati 34-7, Iowa State beat West Virginia 45-42, and N.D. State shut out Wyoming 28-0. Fresno State beat Washington State 26-6 for its first Pac-12 win. North Texas beat Tulsa 45-44 and Syracuse beat Connecticut 42-41, both in overtime.
Biggest deficits overcome by the winner, after any quarter
Kentucky over South Carolina, 35-34 in overtime, trailed by 14
San Diego State over Texas State, 31-29, trailed by 14
Houston over UCF, 27-17, trailed by 10
Nebraska over Maryland, 48-23, trailed by 9
Florida State over Virginia, 38-7, trailed by 7
Minnesota over Michigan, 20-14, trailed by 7
Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won
Minnesota over Michigan (down 4)
Western Michigan over Buffalo (down 4)
Louisiana over Arkansas State (down 3)
Houston over UCF (down 3)
Underdogs that won outright (largest line first)
Bowling Green over Miami (OH), 24-20, line 10.5
Purdue over Illinois, 24-17, line 10.0
San Diego State over Texas State, 31-29, line 9.5
Eastern Michigan over Massachusetts, 38-14, line 6.0
Minnesota over Michigan, 20-14, line 6.0
Missouri over Florida, 45-17, line 5.5
Temple over South Florida, 17-13, line 5.5
Baylor over Arizona State, 55-19, line 3.5
N.C. State over Louisville, 31-28, line 3.0
Fresno State over Washington St., 26-6, line 2.5
Kentucky over South Carolina, 35-34, line 2.5
North Texas over Tulsa, 45-44, line 2.5
Northwestern over Penn State, 34-13, line 2.5
Pittsburgh over Virginia Tech, 35-33, line 2.5
San Jose State over Hawaii, 20-16, line 2.5
Florida State over Virginia, 38-7, line 1.5
Favorites that fell furthest short of the line
Arizona State lost to Baylor by 36 with a line of 3.5, 39.5 points short
Florida lost to Missouri by 28 with a line of 5.5, 33.5 short
Virginia lost to Florida State by 31 with a line of 1.5, 32.5 short
Massachusetts lost to Eastern Michigan by 24 with a line of 6.0, 30.0 short
Penn State lost to Northwestern by 21 with a line of 2.5, 23.5 short
Favorites that beat the line by the most
Wake Forest beat Stanford by 54 with a line of 14.5, covering by 39.5
Kansas beat MTSU by 55 with a line of 21.0, covering by 34.0
Memphis beat Charlotte by 51 with a line of 20.5, covering by 30.5
New Mexico beat UTEP by 54 with a line of 23.5, covering by 30.5
Georgia State beat Old Dominion by 32 with a line of 2.5, covering by 29.5
Rankings Talk
The ratings spread out this week. There are now 78 distinct rating values, up from 52 a week ago, and the number of teams sitting at 0.000 dropped from 30 to 20. Several of the biggest risers got there by leaving that pile after a first FBS win.
At the top, Texas (off this week) leads at 0.647, which is a win percentage of 1.000 times opponents’ win percentage of 0.647. Miami (FL) follows at 0.579, then Alabama at 0.550, Florida at 0.529 and Oregon at 0.513. Florida’s drop of 0.221 was the largest of any team this week.
Three unbeaten teams show the widest gap between record and rating. Here are the plain resume facts.
Georgia is 5-0 (4-0 against FBS teams) and second in the AP poll, but 38th in the ratings. Its FBS opponents, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, are a combined 5-11 against FBS teams, which gives Georgia a rating of 0.313. Georgia leads all 138 teams in scoring margin per FBS game at +32.5, a number the rating does not use.
Indiana is 5-0 (4-0 against FBS teams), seventh in the AP poll and 54th in the ratings. North Texas, Western Kentucky, Northwestern and Rutgers are a combined 4-11 against FBS teams, which gives Indiana a rating of 0.267. Its scoring margin of +28.0 per FBS game ranks seventh.
UCLA is 4-0, 21st in the AP poll and 58th in the ratings. California, San Diego State, Purdue and Maryland are a combined 4-12 against FBS teams, which gives UCLA a rating of 0.250. Its scoring margin of +26.0 per FBS game ranks ninth.
Each opponent’s record includes its games against the team itself, and those records are still taking shape.
Biggest risers
Louisiana Tech, 109th to 73rd (0.000 to 0.212), won 31-29 over Army for its first FBS win, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.333
Purdue, 109th to 77th (0.000 to 0.195), won 24-17 at Illinois, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.250
San Diego State, 109th to 80th (0.000 to 0.188), beat Texas State 31-29, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.250
Syracuse, 109th to 91st (0.000 to 0.167), beat Connecticut 42-41 in overtime, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.333
Bowling Green, 109th to 95th (0.000 to 0.156), beat Miami (OH) 24-20, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.250
Temple, 109th to 95th (0.000 to 0.156), beat South Florida 17-13, lifting its win percentage from 0.000 to 0.250
Biggest fallers
Florida, 1st to 4th (0.750 to 0.529), took its first loss, so its win percentage fell from 1.000 to 0.750, and its opponents’ win percentage slipped from 0.750 to 0.706
UTSA, 17th to 49th (0.400 to 0.281), won at Rice but saw its opponents’ combined win percentage drop from 0.600 to 0.375, as Texas State, Colorado State and Rice each added a loss
Miami (OH), 54th to 102nd (0.259 to 0.141), lost to Bowling Green, dropping its win percentage from 0.333 to 0.250, and its opponents’ win percentage fell from 0.778 to 0.563
Arkansas, 41st to 80th (0.296 to 0.188), lost 34-7 at Texas A&M, dropping its win percentage from 0.333 to 0.250, and its opponents’ win percentage fell from 0.889 to 0.750
UCF, 7th to 29th (0.445 to 0.344), lost 27-17 at Houston, dropping its win percentage from 0.667 to 0.500
Army, 55th to 99th (0.250 to 0.152), lost 31-29 at Louisiana Tech, dropping its win percentage from 0.500 to 0.333
Rating rank is higher than margin rank
Stanford (2-3), rating rank 64, margin rank 125 (average margin -20.8 over 5 FBS games)
Marshall (3-2), rating rank 58, margin rank 118 (-16.2 over 4)
Clemson (3-2), rating rank 37, margin rank 91 (-6.4 over 5)
Kentucky (4-1), rating rank 7, margin rank 60 (+1.8 over 4)
Oregon (3-1), rating rank 5, margin rank 56 (+4.3 over 3)
Michigan State (2-3), rating rank 39, margin rank 86 (-5.0 over 5)
Arizona State (2-2), rating rank 78, margin rank 123 (-19.0 over 3)
Central Michigan (3-2), rating rank 58, margin rank 102 (-10.5 over 4)
Rating rank is lower than margin rank
Georgia State (4-1), rating rank 111, margin rank 26 (+13.2 over 4)
Nevada (1-3), rating rank 115, margin rank 41 (+8.3 over 3)
Massachusetts (4-1), rating rank 113, margin rank 46 (+7.0 over 3)
Kansas (2-2), rating rank 99, margin rank 37 (+10.3 over 3)
New Mexico (4-1), rating rank 65, margin rank 10 (+25.2 over 4)
Connecticut (2-3), rating rank 118, margin rank 67 (+0.0 over 4)
UCLA (4-0), rating rank 58, margin rank 9 (+26.0 over 4)
Indiana (5-0), rating rank 54, margin rank 7 (+28.0 over 4)
Nineteen of the AP’s 25 teams are also in the top 25 of the ratings. Here is where the two lists disagree most.
AP ranks the team higher than the ratings do
SMU (4-1), 24th in the AP, 74th in the ratings, a gap of 50
Indiana (5-0), 7th in the AP, 54th in the ratings, a gap of 47
UCLA (4-0), 21st in the AP, 58th in the ratings, a gap of 37
Georgia (5-0), 2nd in the AP, 38th in the ratings, a gap of 36
Ole Miss (3-1), 9th in the AP, 34th in the ratings, a gap of 25
Notre Dame (5-0), 3rd in the AP, 25th in the ratings, a gap of 22
Utah (4-0), 12th in the AP, 31st in the ratings, a gap of 19
Ohio State (4-1), 5th in the AP, 23rd in the ratings, a gap of 18
The ratings rank the team higher than the AP does
Kentucky (4-1), 7th in the ratings and outside the AP top 25, a gap of 19 or more
Pittsburgh (5-0), 6th in the ratings and 25th in the AP, a gap of 19
Wisconsin (4-1), 10th in the ratings and outside the AP top 25, a gap of 16 or more
Florida (4-1), 4th in the ratings and 16th in the AP, a gap of 12
Northwestern (3-1), 15th in the ratings and outside the AP top 25, a gap of 11 or more
USC (5-1), 9th in the ratings and 19th in the AP, a gap of 10
Houston (4-1), 13th in the ratings and 22nd in the AP, a gap of 9
Mississippi State (4-1), 8th in the ratings and 17th in the AP, a gap of 9
The Rankings
Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.
Top 25 Teams
1. Texas (SEC), 4-0, 0.647
2. Miami (FL) (ACC), 5-0, 0.579
3. Alabama (SEC), 5-0, 0.550
4. Florida (SEC), 4-1, 0.529
5. Oregon (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.513
6. Pittsburgh (ACC), 5-0, 0.467
7. Kentucky (SEC), 4-1, 0.458
8. Mississippi St. (SEC), 4-1, 0.457
9. USC (Big Ten), 5-1, 0.451
10. Missouri (SEC), 4-1, 0.450
10. Wisconsin (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.450
12. LSU (SEC), 4-1, 0.441
13. Houston (Big 12), 4-1, 0.422
14. BYU (Big 12), 4-0, 0.417
15. Northwestern (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.410
16. Boise State (Pac-12), 4-1, 0.400
16. Texas Tech (Big 12), 5-0, 0.400
18. Iowa (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.397
19. Duke (ACC), 4-0, 0.385
20. James Madison (Sun Belt), 5-0, 0.375
20. Minnesota (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.375
22. Oklahoma State (Big 12), 3-1, 0.364
23. Ohio State (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.360
24. Nebraska (Big Ten), 5-0, 0.353
25. Cincinnati (Big 12), 4-1, 0.350
25. Notre Dame (Independents), 5-0, 0.350
25. Tennessee (SEC), 4-1, 0.350
Conferences
1. SEC (0.397)
2. Big Ten (0.342)
3. Big 12 (0.306)
4. ACC (0.283)
5. Pac-12 (0.224)
6. American (0.216)
7. Mountain West (0.197)
8. Independents (0.196)
9. Sun Belt (0.177)
10. Mid-American (0.156)
11. Conference USA (0.124)
Loose Ends
Alabama beat Mississippi State, which beat Missouri, which beat Florida, which beat Ole Miss, which beat LSU. The scores in order were 56-23, 31-24, 45-17, 52-28 and 32-24.
Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel tore the ACL in his right knee against Virginia Tech and is out for the season. He was hurt on the fourth play of the second half, and he had entered the weekend tied for the ACC lead with 14 touchdown passes.
Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor was sacked five times, threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and was pulled early in the fourth quarter. He was later seen in a walking boot.
South Carolina played without defensive end Dylan Stewart, who was suspended by the school and the SEC for throwing a punch in a prior game. The Gamecocks are 0-3 in the SEC and have lost eight straight conference games.
Michigan has scored fewer than 20 points in four of its five games (13, 17, 19 and 14) and is 0-2 in the Big Ten.
Minnesota beat Michigan for the first time since 2014 and raised the Little Brown Jug at home for the first time in 49 years.
Penn State is 3-2 and 0-2 in the Big Ten in its first season under head coach Matt Campbell, and it lost 24-20 to Wisconsin the week before after leading by 17. Penn State and Texas A&M share 55th place in the ratings at 0.266.
John Love had made 42 of his 44 career field goal attempts from inside 40 yards before the miss against Pitt.
Missouri’s 28-point margin was its largest against a top-10 team, ahead of a 21-point win at USC in 1976.
Georgia had outscored opponents 63-0 in the first quarter through four games before Vanderbilt scored on a 60-yard touchdown pass.
Before Houston’s comeback, FBS teams were 130-3 this season when leading by 17 or more in the second half.
Northwestern’s win was the first game at the new Ryan Field, listed at $875 million, and it marked the first time since 2012 the Wildcats had two 150-yard rushers.
Notre Dame’s win at North Carolina was its 15th in a row.
Notable individual games: Roberts ran for 211 yards for Missouri, Simmons threw for 340, Grunkemeyer threw for 434 for Virginia Tech, Kastantin threw for 305 for Bowling Green, and Sellers ran for 147 for South Carolina.
The best second-half scoring margins per game this season belong to UCLA (+19.2), LSU (+17.0), Nebraska (+16.2), Texas Tech (+15.8) and Alabama (+15.2). The worst are UTEP (-23.8), Western Kentucky (-14.8) and Arizona State (-14.0).
The toughest remaining schedules belong to LSU (0.428), Oklahoma (0.415), Texas A&M (0.412), Vanderbilt (0.409) and Ole Miss (0.400), all SEC teams.
The easiest remaining schedules belong to Jacksonville State and Liberty (tied at 0.054), Massachusetts (0.075), Bowling Green (0.081) and James Madison (0.083).
Among Power 4 teams and Notre Dame, the easiest remaining schedules belong to Wake Forest (0.200), Clemson (0.223), Pittsburgh (0.228), Syracuse (0.231) and Stanford (0.234), all ACC teams. Wake Forest’s 0.200 ranks 77th of 138 teams (1 = hardest). Notre Dame’s remaining schedule (0.249) is the ninth easiest in that group.
The toughest schedules played so far belong to Oregon (0.405), South Carolina (0.392), Texas State (0.353), Florida (0.335) and Alabama (0.323). The easiest belong to Massachusetts (0.060), Georgia State (0.086), Liberty (0.121), UAB (0.122) and Connecticut (0.124).
Looking Ahead
Two games next Saturday put unbeaten teams against each other. Indiana (54th in the ratings) visits Nebraska (24th) at 11:00 AM, and Georgia (38th) visits Alabama (3rd) at 6:30 PM. Fifteen teams are still unbeaten, and one team in each of those games will take a first loss.
These are the top games of the week by rating (all times Central).
LSU (12) at Kentucky (7), Saturday 6:00 PM
Texas (1) vs. Oklahoma (45), Saturday 2:30 PM, neutral site
Georgia (38) at Alabama (3), Saturday 6:30 PM
UCLA (58) at Oregon (5), Saturday 2:30 PM
UCF (29) at Oklahoma State (22), Saturday 11:00 AM
Iowa State (42) at BYU (14), Friday 9:15 PM
USC (9) at Penn State (55), Saturday 6:30 PM
Texas A&M (55) at Missouri (10), Saturday 11:00 AM
Houston (13) at Kansas State (52), Saturday 2:30 PM
Boise State (16) at Fresno State (57), Saturday 9:30 PM
On Friday, the Weekend Viewing Guide will lay out the top four games in each TV window.
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Written by Bob Sloop