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A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this article comes from The Precedent Ratings, which count each team’s wins, losses and its opponents’ records, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. Teams with the same rating share a rank. Statistics use FBS-vs-FBS games only, and early in the season many teams are still tied, so read the lower ranks loosely.
Weekend Recap
Twenty-seven of the weekend’s 58 games were decided by eight points or fewer. That is 47 percent, the highest share of any week this season; the average entering the weekend was 35 percent. Favorites lost 19 of those 58 games outright, and six of them were teams the AP had ranked going in.
By the numbers
58 games played
Home teams won 32 of 58 (55 percent), against a season average of 65 percent
27 one-score games
51.1 points per game, combined
9 unbeaten teams remain, down from 15 a week ago
3 teams are still winless
15 games were won by the team trailing at halftime, and 13 by the team trailing entering the fourth quarter
Oklahoma 27, Texas 24
Texas led 17-7 at halftime and 17-10 after three quarters, and Oklahoma outscored it 17-7 in the fourth. Oklahoma, a 7.5-point underdog, scored on a blocked punt and on Peyton Bowen’s 42-yard interception return. Arch Manning threw for 260 yards and three touchdowns but was intercepted twice in the fourth quarter. Bowen’s return was one of those interceptions, and the other set up Tate Sandell’s 47-yard field goal as time expired. Manning said afterward that Texas “beat ourselves.” Texas fell from #1 to #3 in The Precedent Ratings and from #1 to #7 in the AP Poll. Oklahoma moved from #45 to #21.
Georgia 20, Alabama 17
EJ Crowell’s 1-yard touchdown just before halftime put Alabama ahead 14-10. Georgia tied it 17-17 in the third quarter, held Alabama to three points after halftime, and won on Peyton Woodring’s 23-yard field goal with 5:25 left. Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards, and Dwight Phillips Jr. ran for 120, with Georgia playing without its leading rusher. It was Kirby Smart’s first regular-season win over Alabama and Georgia’s first win in Tuscaloosa since 2007. Georgia rose from #38 to #7 in The Precedent Ratings and moved to #1 in the AP Poll with 66 first-place votes.
Kentucky 35, LSU 34 (OT)
For the second week in a row, Kentucky was tied 27-27 at the end of regulation and won the overtime 8-7. Adam Zouagui forced overtime with a 33-yard field goal after missing two earlier fourth-quarter tries. Will Stein again went for two after Kentucky’s overtime touchdown, and Kenny Minchey ran it in on a quarterback draw. Kentucky was a 9.5-point underdog and is the first FBS team to win consecutive overtime games by one point. It sits at #6 in The Precedent Ratings and #15 in the AP Poll.
UCLA 17, Oregon 15
Oregon scored six points through three quarters at home, and neither team scored in the third. UCLA forced seven turnovers, held Oregon to 272 yards and stopped two late two-point tries to win as a 10.5-point underdog. Oregon played without Dante Moore, who is in the concussion protocol, and Dylan Raiola started at quarterback. UCLA lost starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to a lower-body injury during the game. Wayne Knight ran for 103 yards and scored both UCLA touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. It was UCLA’s first win in Eugene since 2004, and Bob Chesney is the first UCLA coach to start 5-0. Oregon fell from #5 to #13 in The Precedent Ratings and out of the AP Poll. UCLA rose from #58 to #30.
Indiana 20, Nebraska 17
Indiana trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters (10-3 at halftime, 10-6 after three) and was down 17-6 early in the fourth. Josh Hoover then hit Nick Marsh for a 75-yard touchdown and a 44-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1. Indiana won but did not cover as an 8.5-point favorite. Its winning streak is now 22 games, the longest active streak in FBS. Nebraska was unbeaten against FBS opponents entering the game, which is why Indiana jumped from #54 to #5 in The Precedent Ratings.
South Carolina 38, Florida 19
South Carolina led 31-13 after three quarters and won by 19 as a 10.5-point underdog. It was Florida’s second straight lopsided loss, after a 45-17 defeat at Missouri. Florida was #1 in The Precedent Ratings after weeks 2, 3 and 4. It is now #15 and out of the AP Poll.
Houston 35, Kansas State 16
Houston led 35-9 after three quarters, in Manhattan, against a Kansas State team favored by 2.5. Kansas State’s only touchdown came in a fourth quarter Houston didn’t score in. Houston is #14 in The Precedent Ratings.
Missouri 27, Texas A&M 6
After Texas A&M took a 3-0 lead, Missouri outscored it 27-3. Jamal Roberts ran for a career-high 222 yards and two touchdowns, including a 54-yarder, and Texas A&M finished with 216 total yards and no offensive touchdowns. Missouri covered a four-point line by 17.
North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17
Pittsburgh came in 5-0 and ranked #25 in the AP Poll. North Carolina trailed 10-7 at halftime, led 14-10 after three and won as a 3.5-point underdog. It was Bill Belichick’s first win over a ranked team at North Carolina. Pittsburgh fell from #6 to #27 in The Precedent Ratings.
Other results: USC won 31-23 at Penn State in front of a Beaver Stadium record crowd of 114,419, with Jayden Maiava throwing for 301 yards and three touchdowns. Iowa beat Washington 41-24 on Friday as Kamari Moulton ran for a career-best 208 yards and two touchdowns. Notre Dame beat Stanford 58-7, Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt 52-17, Ohio State beat Maryland 45-16, Utah beat Kansas 41-24, and BYU beat Iowa State 24-10. Buffalo beat Toledo 23-8 as an 18.5-point underdog, the largest upset of the weekend by the line.
The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter
Louisville over Florida State, 44-20, after trailing by 14
Utah State over Washington State, 17-16, after trailing by 13
Louisiana Tech over Louisiana, 32-31, after trailing by 11
Oklahoma over Texas, 27-24, after trailing by 10
Virginia over Syracuse, 28-25, after trailing by 10
Indiana over Nebraska, 20-17, after trailing by 7
Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won
Louisiana Tech over Louisiana (down 11)
Wyoming over San Jose State (down 7)
Oklahoma over Texas (down 7)
Utah State over Washington State (down 6)
Navy over Tulsa (down 6)
Indiana over Nebraska (down 4)
Tennessee over Arkansas (down 4)
Virginia over Syracuse (down 3)
Army over Tulane (down 3)
Jacksonville State over Kennesaw State (down 2)
Eastern Michigan over Akron (down 1)
Old Dominion over Appalachian State (down 1)
California over Virginia Tech (down 1)
Of the 58 games with a line, favorites won 39 and covered 23, and one game pushed.
Underdogs that won outright
Buffalo over Toledo, 23-8 (18.5)
South Carolina over Florida, 38-19 (10.5)
UCLA over Oregon, 17-15 (10.5)
California over Virginia Tech, 25-20 (10.0)
Kentucky over LSU, 35-34 (9.5)
Old Dominion over Appalachian State, 10-3 (8.5)
Oklahoma over Texas, 27-24 (7.5)
Coastal Carolina over Marshall, 27-21 (4.5)
Georgia Tech over Duke, 28-25 (4.5)
Wyoming over San Jose State, 16-13 (4.5)
North Carolina over Pittsburgh, 21-17 (3.5)
UConn over Temple, 34-20 (3.5)
South Alabama over Arkansas State, 56-49 (3.0)
Georgia over Alabama, 20-17 (2.5)
Houston over Kansas State, 35-16 (2.5)
Iowa over Washington, 41-24 (2.5)
Purdue over Minnesota, 41-13 (2.5)
UNLV over North Dakota State, 13-7 (2.5)
USC over Penn State, 31-23 (1.5)
Favorites that fell furthest short of the line
Toledo, favored by 18.5, lost by 15 (33.5 short)
Minnesota, favored by 2.5, lost by 28 (30.5 short)
Florida, favored by 10.5, lost by 19 (29.5 short)
Kansas State, favored by 2.5, lost by 19 (21.5 short)
Washington, favored by 2.5, lost by 17 (19.5 short)
Favorites that beat the line by the most
Oregon State, favored by 16.5 over San Diego State, won by 52 (35.5 better)
Ole Miss, favored by 9.5 over Vanderbilt, won by 35 (25.5 better)
Louisville, favored by 3.5 over Florida State, won by 24 (20.5 better)
Wake Forest, favored by 3.5 over NC State, won by 24 (20.5 better)
Western Kentucky, favored by 1.5 over Missouri State, won by 21 (19.5 better)
Rankings Talk
The ratings keep spreading out. There are now 88 distinct ratings among 138 teams, up from 78 a week ago, and 14 teams remain at 0.000, down from 20. The top three are separated by two thousandths of a point: Alabama 0.546, Miami (FL) 0.545 and Texas 0.544.
That is how Alabama lost and still moved from #3 to #1. Its loss came against an unbeaten Georgia, and Texas lost to Oklahoma. The Precedent Ratings measure a team’s record against the records of the teams it played, so who beat you counts as well as whether you lost.
That idea also explains this week’s biggest gap with the AP Poll. The two agree on 16 of their 25 ranked teams. Ohio State is #4 in the AP and #30 in The Precedent Ratings. It is 5-1 with the third-best average scoring margin in the country, +29.5 per game, but its opponents are a combined 12-18. SMU is #24 in the AP and #81 in The Precedent Ratings, with opponents a combined 5-13. Ole Miss is #9 in the AP and #34 here. The gap runs the other way too. Boise State is #4 in The Precedent Ratings and #23 in the AP, with its only loss at Oregon and opponents a combined 15-10. Oregon is #13 and out of the AP Poll, but its four opponents have gone a combined 18-3, the second-toughest schedule any team has played.
Biggest risers
Indiana, #54 to #5: It beat a Nebraska team that was unbeaten against FBS opponents, and its opponents’ combined record went from 4-11 to 11-12.
Georgia, #38 to #7: It won at an Alabama team that was 5-0, and its opponents went from 5-11 to 12-14.
North Carolina, #70 to #26: It handed Pittsburgh its first loss.
Navy, Buffalo and Old Dominion: Each picked up its first win that counts in the ratings and moved off 0.000.
Biggest fallers
Florida, #4 to #15: It lost its second straight game, 38-19 at home to South Carolina.
Duke, #19 to #54: It lost 28-25 to Georgia Tech, which had not won a game against an FBS opponent.
Pittsburgh, #6 to #27: It suffered its first loss, 21-17 to North Carolina.
Minnesota, #20 to #53: It lost 41-13 to Purdue as a 2.5-point favorite.
Florida State, #35 to #72: It led Louisville by 14 and lost 44-20.
Texas, #1 to #3: It suffered its first loss.
Kentucky is #6 in The Precedent Ratings but #64 in scoring margin, at +1.6 points per game, after two one-point overtime wins in a row. New Mexico has the fifth-best scoring margin in the country, +25.2 per game, but sits at #68 because of who it has played.
Wisconsin, Oregon, Florida and Nebraska are all in The Precedent’s top 15, and none of them is in the AP top 25. The longest line on the chart belongs to SMU, #24 in the AP and #81 in The Precedent Ratings.
The Rankings
Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.
The SEC is still the top-rated conference, though its rating slipped from 0.397 to 0.381. The Independents moved up two spots to #6.
The full Precedent Ratings, with every conference’s standings and every team’s schedule, are attached for subscribers.
Loose Ends
Both unbeaten-versus-unbeaten games went to the road team: Georgia at Alabama and Indiana at Nebraska.
Three games went to overtime: Kentucky over LSU (35-34), Illinois over Michigan State (38-37) and Wyoming over San Jose State (16-13).
Notre Dame freshman Jonaz Walton scored on a 97-yard run and finished with 181 rushing yards against Stanford.
Texas Tech has the best second-half scoring margin in the country, +15.8 points per game. UCLA is next at +15.0.
South Carolina has played the toughest schedule so far, and Oregon the second toughest.
Four of the five toughest remaining schedules belong to SEC teams: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida and Vanderbilt. Ohio State, at #3, is the only one outside the SEC.
James Madison is 6-0 and has the fifth-easiest remaining schedule.
Looking Ahead
There is one unbeaten-versus-unbeaten game next week: Notre Dame (6-0) at BYU (5-0).
Top games for next week by The Precedent Ratings:
Florida (#15) at Texas (#3), Saturday, 11:00 AM
Kentucky (#6) at Oklahoma (#21), Saturday, 6:30 PM
Mississippi State (#8) at LSU (#18), Saturday, 11:00 AM
Nebraska (#15) at Oregon (#13), Saturday, time not yet set
Alabama (#1) at Tennessee (#37), Saturday, 2:30 PM
Notre Dame (#23) at BYU (#9), Saturday, 6:30 PM
Ohio State (#30) at Indiana (#5), Saturday, 11:00 AM
Wisconsin (#11) at UCLA (#30), Saturday, time not yet set
Auburn (#37) at Georgia (#7), Saturday, 2:30 PM
Missouri (#12) at Ole Miss (#34), Saturday, 2:30 PM
All times are Central. Friday’s Weekend Viewing Guide will break the slate into time windows and list the top four games in each.
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Written by Bob Sloop