For college football news and my thoughts on it, catch the latest video available every Wednesday night on the Precedent Media YouTube channel.
Weekend Recap
Week 4 delivered the most games of the season, 58 in all, and the fewest favorites winning at home: just 31, or 53 percent, after three straight weeks between 67 and 82 percent. That’s the shape of the whole weekend in one number.
By the numbers
58 games were played between FBS teams, the most of any week this season
Home teams won just 31 of them, 53 percent, the lowest rate of the season
19 games (33 percent) were decided by one score or less, in line with the season average of 34 percent
Combined scoring averaged 50.9 points per game, below the season average of 53.0
22 of the 138 FBS teams are still unbeaten, down from 35 the week before
4 teams are still winless, down from 7
10 games went to a team that trailed at halftime, and 8 went to a team that trailed entering the fourth quarter
Florida 52, Ole Miss 28
Florida led 10-0 before Ole Miss’s offense found any rhythm and never let up, scoring on five straight second-half drives. Jadan Baugh ran for three touchdowns. It’s Florida’s first 4-0 start since 2019, and first-year coach Jon Sumrall became the first coach in SEC history to score 200-plus points through his first four games. The Precedent College Football Ratings had Florida at No. 1 already; this result didn’t change that, it confirmed it.
Iowa 20, Michigan 19
Iowa beat Michigan in Ann Arbor on a touchdown pass with no time left, capping a 91-yard drive. It’s Iowa’s first win at the Big House since 2010, and it came despite Michigan outgaining Iowa 429-285.
Texas 20, Tennessee 17
Texas held off Tennessee in Knoxville behind a school-record five sacks from Colin Simmons and ten sacks as a team. The offense managed 201 yards through the air from Arch Manning and needed the defense to finish the job.
Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20
Wisconsin trailed 17-0, then trailed 20-10 in the fourth quarter, and won on a 72-yard touchdown pass with 1:13 left. Two separate streaks ended in the same game: Penn State had won 64 straight games when leading by 10 or more points in the fourth quarter, and Wisconsin hadn’t won at Beaver Stadium since 2003 or beaten a ranked opponent on the road since October 2021, against Purdue.
Oregon 41, USC 27
Oregon starting quarterback Dante Moore was hit while sliding in the second quarter, drew a targeting ejection, and was taken to the hospital with a concussion. He’s expected back this season; Oregon has a bye before playing again October 10. Backup Dylan Raiola, a Nebraska transfer, threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns in relief. USC linebacker Desman Stephens II was ejected for the hit and suspended by USC for an additional game over his conduct afterward. The win extends Oregon’s streak over USC to five straight, 9-2 across the last 11 meetings.
Other results: LSU buried Texas A&M 35-6 a week after LSU’s own loss. Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24 behind 360 passing yards from Kamario Taylor, the Bulldogs’ first win over a ranked opponent since 2014. Wake Forest won at Louisville 30-27. Jeremiah Smith caught four touchdowns for Ohio State in a 42-19 win over Illinois, tying a program record. Keelon Russell threw for 365 yards in Alabama’s 49-18 win over South Carolina.
Comebacks defined the weekend. Here are the biggest ones.
The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter
Miami (OH) over Connecticut, 24-21, trailed by 14
SMU over Missouri State, 34-24, trailed by 10
Stanford over Georgia Tech, 34-27, trailed by 10
Wisconsin over Penn State, 24-20, trailed by 10
Air Force over Nevada, 36-33, trailed by 7
Arizona over Washington State, 34-24, trailed by 7
Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won
Wisconsin over Penn State, down 10
Mississippi State over Missouri, down 7
Tulane over So. Mississippi, down 7
Iowa over Michigan, down 6
South Florida over Bowling Green, down 6
Air Force over Nevada, down 4
UAB over Navy, down 3
Virginia Tech over Boston College, down 1
The betting lines had a rough weekend too. Favorites won 48 of the 58 games that had a line, but only 33 covered, and two pushed.
Underdogs that won outright, largest line first
Wake Forest over Louisville, 30-27, as an 11.5-point underdog
Minnesota over Washington, 27-24, as a 10.5-point underdog
Wisconsin over Penn State, 24-20, as a 10-point underdog
UAB over Navy, 24-20, as a 6.5-point underdog
Cincinnati over Kansas State, 31-26, as a 6-point underdog
Iowa over Michigan, 20-19, as a 5.5-point underdog
Stanford over Georgia Tech, 34-27, as a 3.5-point underdog
UCF over TCU, 21-13, as a 3-point underdog
Wyoming over Hawaii, 27-10, as a 2.5-point underdog
Oklahoma State over West Virginia, 41-24, as a 1.5-point underdog
Favorites that fell furthest short of the line
SMU, 23.5 points short in a 34-24 win over Missouri State
Hawaii, 19.5 points short against Wyoming
West Virginia, 18.5 points short against Oklahoma State
Indiana, 14.5 points short against Northwestern
Louisville, 14.5 points short against Wake Forest
Favorites that beat the line by the most
UCLA, by 49.5 points, in a 54-3 win over Maryland
Massachusetts, by 24.5 points, over Sacramento State
Toledo, by 22.5 points, over San Diego State
Arkansas, by 21.0 points, over Tulsa
Florida, by 20.5 points, over Ole Miss
Rankings Talk
Three weeks ago the ratings had 12 distinct values across 138 teams. This week there are 52, with 30 teams still at 0.000, down from 44 the week before. The picture is sorting itself out fast, but there’s still a lot of shared rank at the bottom, so read the lower half loosely. The top is a different story.
Florida sits alone at No. 1, the only team the ratings clearly separate from the pack. Behind that, this week’s real story is a growing gap between records and resumes.
Georgia is 4-0, second in the AP poll, and has outscored its FBS opponents by an average of 35.3 points per game, best in the country. It’s also 38th in the ratings. The resume explains why: Western Kentucky, Arkansas, and Oklahoma have a combined FBS record of 3-7. Notre Dame is in a similar spot: 4-0, third in the AP poll, and its four FBS opponents, Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, and Purdue, have a combined mark of 4-9. Indiana is the one team in this group that actually got tested. Also undefeated, sixth in the AP poll, and its first two FBS opponents, North Texas and Western Kentucky, had allowed Indiana to outscore them 90-16 combined before Northwestern showed up in Week 4 and hung 23 points on that defense by itself, more than Indiana’s first two FBS opponents managed together. Indiana still won, 29-23, but it needed everything it had against a team most people had barely heard of two weeks ago. Georgia and Notre Dame haven’t had a moment like that yet.
Now flip it around. Duke is 4-0, has actually beaten three FBS teams with a combined winning record, and doesn’t have a single vote in the AP poll. UCF and Wisconsin are both 3-1 with genuinely tough schedules behind them and neither cracks the top 25 either. Oklahoma State is a clean example: unranked two weeks ago, now the owner of a 41-24 win at West Virginia that wasn’t particularly close after the third quarter, and the rating has it 7th in the country. Kentucky is 3-1 with real wins and sits 13th by the rating, 24th in the AP poll almost as an afterthought.
None of this means Georgia or Notre Dame are bad teams. It means we don’t know yet. The schedule will answer the question either way: Georgia gets Alabama, Auburn, and Florida over the next several weeks, and Notre Dame has Miami and a trip to BYU still coming.
Biggest risers, all of whom started the week at 0.000
Air Force, to 0.334, after beating Nevada and North Dakota State improved to 3-0
Utah, to 0.333, after its three FBS wins started producing records worth counting
Georgia, to 0.300, for the same reason
Arkansas, to 0.296
Tennessee, to 0.267, after Texas improved to 4-0
Miami (OH), to 0.259
Biggest fallers
Northwestern, from 0.500 to 0.334, after the Indiana loss
Louisville, from 0.400 to 0.242, after the Wake Forest loss
Troy, from 0.250 to 0.111
MTSU, from 0.300 to 0.167
W. Michigan, from 0.300 to 0.167
Notre Dame, from 0.429 to 0.308, even though it won; its opponents’ records didn’t hold up
The biggest gaps between the ratings and the scoreboard run in both directions.
Rating rank is higher than margin rank
Arkansas, 41st in the ratings, 103rd in average margin (-11.0)
Miami (OH), 54th in the ratings, 115th in average margin (-15.3)
UTSA, 17th in the ratings, 76th in average margin (-1.7)
Central Michigan, 66th in the ratings, 124th in average margin (-22.0)
Stanford, 50th in the ratings, 108th in average margin (-12.5)
Oklahoma State, 7th in the ratings, 55th in average margin (+3.7)
Rating rank is lower than margin rank
Massachusetts, 109th in the ratings, 13th in average margin (+22.5)
UCLA, 86th in the ratings, 9th in average margin (+26.0)
Indiana, 55th in the ratings, 7th in average margin (+26.7)
Arizona, 86th in the ratings, 41st in average margin (+8.0)
Where the ratings and the AP poll disagree most. Sixteen of the AP’s 25 teams are also in the top 25 of the ratings.
The AP ranks the team higher
SMU, 21st in the AP and 94th in the ratings
UCLA, 23rd and 86th
Indiana, 6th and 55th
Georgia, 2nd and 38th
Tennessee, 17th and 51st
Notre Dame, 3rd and 36th
Houston, 20th and 41st
Texas Tech, 12th and 33rd
The ratings rank the team higher
Duke, not in the AP top 25 and 6th in the ratings
UCF, not in the AP top 25 and 7th
Wisconsin, not in the AP top 25 and 7th
Cincinnati, not in the AP top 25 and 10th
Auburn, not in the AP top 25 and 11th
Oklahoma State, 19th in the AP and 7th in the ratings
Kentucky, 24th and 13th
Oregon, 15th and 5th
The Rankings
Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.
Top 25 Teams
1. Florida (SEC), 4-0, 0.750
2. Texas (SEC), 4-0, 0.615
3. Miami (FL) (ACC), 4-0, 0.545
4. BYU (Big 12), 3-0, 0.500
5. Oregon (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.485
6. Duke (ACC), 4-0, 0.455
7. Oklahoma State (Big 12), 3-1, 0.445
7. UCF (Big 12), 3-1, 0.445
7. Wisconsin (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.445
10. Cincinnati (Big 12), 4-0, 0.444
11. Auburn (SEC), 3-1, 0.437
12. LSU (SEC), 3-1, 0.428
13. Kentucky (SEC), 3-1, 0.424
14. Alabama (SEC), 4-0, 0.417
14. Mississippi State (SEC), 4-0, 0.417
16. Ole Miss (SEC), 3-1, 0.404
17. Iowa (Big Ten), 4-0, 0.400
17. Minnesota (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.400
17. USC (Big Ten), 4-1, 0.400
17. UTSA (American), 3-1, 0.400
21. Pittsburgh (ACC), 4-0, 0.375
22. Boise State (Pac-12), 3-1, 0.371
22. Missouri (SEC), 3-1, 0.371
24. Michigan State (Big Ten), 2-2, 0.357
25. Michigan (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.347
25. Ohio State (Big Ten), 3-1, 0.347
Conferences
1. SEC (0.416)
2. Big Ten (0.354)
3. Big 12 (0.303)
4. ACC (0.292)
5. American (0.229)
6. Pac-12 (0.219)
7. Independents (0.195)
8. Mountain West (0.168)
9. Sun Belt (0.165)
10. Mid-American (0.135)
11. Conference USA (0.120)
Loose Ends
Colin Simmons tied the Texas program record with five sacks against Tennessee. He was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for a celebration after one of them, which wiped out a Texas sack and handed Tennessee an automatic first down.
Texas Tech LB Austin Romaine returned two interceptions for touchdowns on consecutive Sam Houston possessions to open the second quarter, one off Brett Holloway, the next off Landyn Locke.
Michigan’s Week 1 win over Western Michigan, on a Hail Mary set up after officials put one second back on the clock, remains a live controversy; the MAC formally protested the result.
22 teams are unbeaten in overall record, and six games this week pit two of them against each other, four involving a ranked team: Ole Miss-Florida, Iowa-Michigan, Northwestern-Indiana, and Texas-Tennessee.
The biggest line of the week belonged to Central Michigan at Miami, a 41.5-point spread. The closest was a three-way tie at 1.5 points: Oklahoma State-West Virginia, Clemson-California, and UCLA-Maryland.
Oregon’s schedule so far is the toughest in the country by strength of schedule played (0.405), tied with Texas State.
Oklahoma has the toughest remaining schedule in the country (0.438), followed by Mississippi State, Missouri, LSU, and Vanderbilt, all five in the SEC.
Jacksonville State has the easiest remaining schedule in the country (0.053).
USC’s Desman Stephens II was ejected for targeting on the hit that sent Oregon’s Dante Moore to the hospital, then suspended by USC for an additional game over his conduct on the sideline afterward.
Looking Ahead
Two unbeaten-versus-unbeaten games headline Week 5: Pittsburgh (21) at Virginia Tech (66), Friday 6:00 PM, and Alabama (14) at Mississippi State (14), Saturday 11:00 AM. Both matchups guarantee at least one long winning streak ends this weekend.
Here are the top games for Week 5 by the ratings, with each team’s ratings rank in parentheses. All times Central.
Florida (1) at Missouri (22), Saturday, 2:30 PM
Alabama (14) at Mississippi State (14), Saturday, 11:00 AM
Miami (FL) (3) at Clemson (35), Saturday, 6:30 PM
Michigan State (24) at Wisconsin (7), Saturday, 11:30 AM
Ohio State (25) at Iowa (17), Saturday, 2:30 PM
Michigan (25) at Minnesota (17), Saturday, 11:00 AM
UCF (7) at Houston (41), Saturday, 11:00 AM
Auburn (11) at Tennessee (51), Saturday
Kentucky (13) at South Carolina (49), Saturday, 3:15 PM
Vanderbilt (27) at Georgia (38), Saturday, 11:45 AM
For the full weekend, watch for Friday’s Weekend Viewing Guide. It breaks the slate into time windows and lists the top four games in each one, with any unbeaten AP top-25 matchup added as well.
Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.
Written by Bob Sloop.