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Four different windows this weekend carry an average game rank in single digits, which tells you something about how loaded this slate is. Saturday evening is the deepest stretch of the day, with four ranked-ish matchups bunched together and not a bad game in the bunch. If you only have one window to give your full attention, that’s it.
Game of the Week
#6 Ole Miss at #1 Florida — Saturday, 2:30 PM, ABC
Florida sits at the top of the ratings and is favored by 3.5 at home, which is about as thin a margin as you’ll find in a game between a one and a six. Both teams are unbeaten, both have won at least two straight, and the over/under at 59.5 suggests nobody expects a defensive struggle. This is the kind of game that tells you something real about where the season is headed, not just who wins.
From here, we’ll walk through the weekend window by window, so you know what’s on and when. If you’ve got a multi-view setup, these are the games worth filling it with.
Friday Afternoon (Avg. Game Rank: 53.0)
#53 Army (95) at Temple (95) — Army -3.0, O/U 48.5, 3:00 PM, ESPN
Not much shine here on paper, and the ratings have both teams near the bottom of the FBS pack. Army carries a one-game losing streak into this one, Temple’s dropped two straight.
Friday Evening (Avg. Game Rank: 43.0)
#11 Northwestern (2) at Indiana (78) — Indiana -20.5, O/U 49.5, 7:00 PM, FOX
#50 Navy (95) at UAB (91) — Navy -6.5, O/U 51.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN
#68 Howard at Rutgers (95) — Rutgers -43.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN
Northwestern-Indiana is the one to circle, and not because either side is a lock. The Precedent has Northwestern rated as the second-best team in the country, yet Indiana is favored by more than three touchdowns as the home team. It’s early enough in the season that gaps like this can mean the ratings haven’t caught up to reality yet, or they can mean the market hasn’t. We’ll find out which one it is Friday night.
Friday After Dark (Avg. Game Rank: 10.0)
#10 Clemson (36) at California (28) — Clemson -1.5, O/U 50.5, 9:30 PM, ESPN
A late kickoff for a game that’s closer than the records might suggest. Clemson’s won two in a row, Cal one, and a point and a half separates them in Vegas. Good one to have on if you’re still up.
Saturday Early (Avg. Game Rank: 10.5)
#4 Illinois (22) at Ohio State (36) — Ohio State -27.5, O/U 53.5, 11:00 AM, FOX
#9 Wake Forest (62) at Louisville (11) — Louisville -13.5, O/U 56.5, 11:00 AM, ESPN
#12 Colorado State (41) at UTSA (22) — UTSA -13.5, O/U 58.5, 11:00 AM, ESPNU
#17 South Alabama (78) at Kentucky (10) — Kentucky -20.5, O/U 54.5, 11:45 AM, SEC Network
Illinois-Ohio State is the headline here on paper, though a 27.5-point spread doesn’t leave much drama to expect. Louisville’s the heavy favorite in the window’s other big line, a 13.5-point spread against Wake Forest, and if you want the one late add to your morning slate, that’s the game worth flipping to.
Saturday Afternoon (Avg. Game Rank: 6.0)
#1 Ole Miss (6) at Florida (1) — Florida -3.5, O/U 59.5, 2:30 PM, ABC
#3 Iowa (41) at Michigan (6) — Michigan -5.5, O/U 38.5, 2:30 PM, CBS
#8 Boise State (28) at W. Michigan (28) — Boise State -7.0, O/U 49.5, 2:30 PM, ESPN2
#12 Vanderbilt (41) at Auburn (22) — Auburn -9.5, O/U 55.5, 3:15 PM, SEC Network
This window doubles as our Game of the Week slot, but don’t sleep on Iowa-Michigan sitting right alongside it. Both teams are unbeaten, both have won at least two straight, and the 38.5 over/under is the lowest of the entire weekend. There’s also a fun subplot buried in Boise State-Western Michigan: Boise nearly knocked off Oregon, and a lot of people think Western Michigan actually did beat Michigan earlier this year, depending on which replay you believe. Two teams with a case for the best win nobody’s crediting them for, on the same field.
Saturday Evening (Avg. Game Rank: 5.0)
#2 South Carolina (28) at Alabama (15) — Alabama -12.5, O/U 53.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN
#5 Oklahoma State (15) at West Virginia (41) — West Virginia -1.5, O/U 60.5, 6:00 PM, FS1
#6 Texas A&M (62) at LSU (9) — LSU -9.5, O/U 51.5, 6:30 PM, ABC
#7 Oregon (41) at USC (20) — Oregon -3.0, O/U 62.5, 6:30 PM, NBC
This window edges out Saturday afternoon as the deepest of the weekend, though it’s close enough that either one could carry your night. Oklahoma State-West Virginia is a true toss-up at a point and a half, and Oregon-USC carries the highest total of the entire weekend at 62.5. USC also brings the longest active win streak in the country into this one, four games and counting.
Saturday After Dark (Avg. Game Rank: 37.2)
#31 Rice (95) at Fresno State (22) — Fresno State -13.5, O/U 44.5, 9:00 PM, CW
#32 Minnesota (28) at Washington (95) — Washington -10.0, O/U 45.5, 10:00 PM, FOX
#41 Georgia Tech (95) at Stanford (41) — Georgia Tech -3.5, O/U 47.5, 9:30 PM, ESPN
#45 Missouri State (95) at SMU (66) — SMU -34.5, O/U 59.5, 8:00 PM, ACC Network
Minnesota is the name to watch late, not so much for this game but for what’s waiting next week: a date with sixth-ranked Michigan. Whether that’s on their minds Saturday night in Seattle is anyone’s guess, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
By the Numbers
Thirty-five teams enter the weekend unbeaten, and six games this week pit two of them against each other, four involving a ranked team: Ole Miss-Florida, Iowa-Michigan, Northwestern-Indiana, and Texas-Tennessee.
The biggest line of the week belongs to Central Michigan at Miami, a 41.5-point spread. The closest is a three-way tie at 1.5 points: Oklahoma State-West Virginia, Clemson-California, and UCLA-Maryland. Oregon-USC carries the highest total on the board at 62.5, while Iowa-Michigan sits at the other end with a 38.5.
USC’s four-game win streak is the longest active run in the country heading into the weekend.
Sleeper of the Week
#18 UCLA at Maryland — UCLA -1.5, O/U 56.5, 12:30 PM, BTN
Nobody’s talking about this one, but the number says it should be tight. A game ranked 18th overall with a point-and-a-half spread is exactly the kind of matchup that sneaks up on you by the fourth quarter.
Storyline to Watch
Three different games this weekend pit unbeaten teams against each other: Ole Miss-Florida, Iowa-Michigan, and Northwestern-Indiana. By Sunday morning, at most three teams that started the day undefeated will still be able to say so. That’s the kind of weekend that reshapes how the rest of the season looks.
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Written by Bob Sloop.