For college football news and my thoughts on it, catch the latest video available every Wednesday night on the Precedent Media YouTube channel.
Fifty-six games make the cut this week, and three of them pit two ranked teams against each other: LSU-Ole Miss, Houston-Texas Tech, and SMU-Louisville. That’s the most crowded ranked-versus-ranked slate we’ve had all season. Elsewhere, Texas is the new unanimous #1 with all 56 first-place votes and hosts UTSA, while Ohio State, knocked all the way from #1 to #6 after last week’s loss, gets a home date with Kent State to start rebuilding the case.
One quick note: game selections are still pulled from the AP Poll for now. The Precedent Ratings take over once there’s enough data to actually differentiate teams. Betting lines reflect the market as of Thursday, when this guide was put together, so keep an eye out for late movement.
All times Central
Game of the Week
#7 LSU at #8 Ole Miss — Saturday, 6:30 PM, ABC
Both teams are 2-0 and riding two-game win streaks, but the numbers tell two different stories about how they got there. LSU’s average margin against FBS opponents is a staggering +36.0 per game, more than double Ole Miss’s +17.5. The market agrees LSU is the better team even on the road, installing the Tigers as a 3-point favorite with the over/under at 58.5.
Friday Evening
Avg. Game Rank: 5.5
(2) Houston (22) at Texas Tech (13) — Texas Tech -7.5, O/U 52.5 — 7:00 PM, FOX
(9) Miami (FL) (5) at Wake Forest (NR) — Miami -20.5, O/U 56.5 — 6:30 PM, ESPN
Texas Tech slipped a spot to #13 despite starting 2-0, but it’s still favored at home over a Houston team that’s climbed to #22 on a modest +13.0-per-game margin. The bigger story is Miami, up two spots to #5 after quadrupling its first-place votes from one to four, laying 20.5 points on the road at an unbeaten but unranked Wake Forest team. That’s the most dominant scoring margin of anyone in this window at +39.0 per game.
Friday After Dark
Avg. Game Rank: 64.0
(64) Portland State at Oregon (21) — Oregon -57.5, O/U 67.5 — 9:30 PM, BTN
Oregon closes out Friday as a 57.5-point favorite over FCS Portland State. Nobody’s watching this for competitiveness, but if you want a look at the Ducks before Saturday’s bigger slate, it’s on BTN.
Saturday Early
Avg. Game Rank: 15.0
(6) Georgia (2) at Arkansas (NR) — Georgia -24.5, O/U 54.5 — 11:00 AM, ABC
(10) Kent State (NR) at Ohio State (6) — Ohio State -52.5, O/U 58.5 — 11:00 AM, FOX
(15) Buffalo (NR) at Penn State (14) — Penn State -40.5, O/U 49.5 — 11:00 AM, BTN
(29) Tulane (NR) at Kansas State (NR) — Kansas State -20.5, O/U 49.5 — 11:00 AM, ESPN2
Georgia’s +50.0-per-game margin is the best of any team playing this weekend, and Vegas has the Bulldogs by 24.5 on the road against a reeling Arkansas team that just dropped to 1-1. Ohio State is a 52.5-point favorite at home over Kent State, about as clean a get-right spot as the schedule makers could have handed them after last week. Penn State and Kansas State, both 2-0, round out the window as heavy home favorites over losing opponents.
Saturday Afternoon
Avg. Game Rank: 6.5
(3) SMU (16) at Louisville (23) — Louisville -1.5, O/U 58.5 — 2:30 PM, ESPN2
(4) Mississippi St. (NR) at South Carolina (NR) — South Carolina -4.0, O/U 58.5 — 3:15 PM, SEC Network
(8) Western Kentucky (NR) at Indiana (4) — Indiana -44.5, O/U 60.5 — 3:00 PM, Peacock
(11) Kentucky (NR) at Texas A&M (9) — Texas A&M -17.5, O/U 50.5 — 2:30 PM, ESPN
The closest line of the week lives in this window: SMU at Louisville is a virtual pick’em at 1.5 points, even though SMU carries the better record. South Carolina’s +57.0-per-game margin is actually the single best number on the board this week, bigger than Georgia’s, and yet the Gamecocks are favored by only 4 over an equally unbeaten Mississippi State. Indiana is the biggest favorite in this window at -44.5 over Western Kentucky.
Saturday Evening
Avg. Game Rank: 6.5
(1) LSU (7) at Ole Miss (8) — LSU -3.0, O/U 58.5 — 6:30 PM, ABC — see Game of the Week
(5) UTSA (NR) at Texas (1) — Texas -30.5, O/U 58.5 — 7:00 PM, SECN+
(7) Michigan State (NR) at Notre Dame (3) — Notre Dame -29.5, O/U 52.5 — 6:30 PM, NBC
(13) BYU (11) at Colorado State (NR) — BYU -17.5, O/U 52.5 — 6:30 PM, CBS
The Game of the Week anchors this window. New #1 Texas is a 30.5-point favorite over an also-unbeaten UTSA team, and #3 Notre Dame lays 29.5 at home on Michigan State. BYU is a 17.5-point road favorite at Colorado State, the only game in this window where a ranked team is the underdog on the schedule.
Saturday After Dark
Avg. Game Rank: 26.5
(25) Purdue (NR) at UCLA (NR) — UCLA -14.0, O/U 52.5 — 10:00 PM, BTN
(26) James Madison (NR) at San Diego State (NR) — San Diego State -1.5, O/U 46.5 — 9:00 PM, CW
(27) Northern Illinois (NR) at Arizona (NR) — Arizona -33.5, O/U 49.5 — 9:30 PM, TNT
(28) N.D. State (NR) at Sacramento St. (NR) — N.D. State -27.5, O/U 50.5 — 9:30 PM, ESPN
None of these four are ranked, but the numbers still tell a story. James Madison is favored on the road despite San Diego State’s home field advantage, and North Dakota State, the only 3-0 team in this entire window, is a 27.5-point road favorite over a Sacramento State team that’s already slipped to 1-2.
By the Numbers
Fifty-two teams are still unbeaten entering the weekend. Twelve games this weekend pit two unbeaten teams against each other, and eight of those involve a ranked team:
LSU at Ole Miss
Houston at Texas Tech
UTSA at Texas
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Miami (FL) at Wake Forest
BYU at Colorado State
Troy at Missouri
West Virginia at Virginia
Lines to watch this week:
Biggest line: Kent State at Ohio State, 52.5
Highest total: FIU at FAU and North Texas at Texas State, both O/U 62.5
Lowest total: Wyoming at Central Michigan, O/U 38.5
Closest line of the week, a three-way tie at 1.5 points: SMU at Louisville, James Madison at San Diego State, and Wyoming at Central Michigan
Upset alert: #16 SMU is a 1.5-point underdog to #23 Louisville
Hot start: the longest active win streak in the country is three games, shared by USC and North Dakota State
Sleeper of the Week
North Dakota State at Sacramento State, Saturday at 9:30 PM. The Bison are the only 3-0 team in the entire late window and they’re a 27.5-point road favorite, yet this game is buried at the bottom of the slate where almost nobody will find it.
Storyline to Watch
Ohio State getting a 52.5-point cushion against Kent State a week after falling from #1 to #6 is about as favorable a bounce-back spot as the schedule allows. The scoreboard should take care of itself. The real question is whether this team looks like a top-six squad doing it, or a shaken one just padding a stat line.
Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.
Written by Bob Sloop