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If you can only spare one stretch of Saturday, make it the early window. Alabama and Mississippi State, both unbeaten and both rated 14th, meet at 11:00 AM, with Michigan State at Wisconsin, Michigan at Minnesota, and UCF at Houston filling out the morning. Those four games average a Game Rank of 4.5, the best of any window this weekend. Saturday afternoon is close behind at 5.8, and it has the Game of the Week.
A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this guide comes from The Precedent Ratings, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. The number in front of each game is its Game Rank, which orders the weekend’s games using both teams’ ratings. In each window, a lower Avg. Game Rank means a stronger slate. Only FBS-vs-FBS games are included, and all kickoff times are Central.
Game of the Week
Florida (#1) at Missouri (#22), Florida -5.5, over/under 57.5, 2:30 PM, ABC
Florida has won three in a row and ranks first in The Precedent Ratings, where the AP Poll has the Gators eighth. Missouri, 22nd in the ratings and 25th in the AP, is coming off a loss and hosts as a 5.5-point underdog. The two have no common opponents yet, so there is no shared yardstick to hold them against. A total of 57.5 is among the higher numbers on the weekend’s board.
Friday Evening (Avg. Game Rank 18.7)
#11 - Penn State (#47) at Northwestern (#27), Penn State -3.0, over/under 45.5, 7:00 PM, FOX
#15 - Pittsburgh (#21) at Virginia Tech (#66), Virginia Tech -2.5, over/under 54.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN
#30 - Liberty (#66) at Delaware (#94), Liberty -6.5, over/under 49.5, 6:00 PM, CBSSN
Friday brings three games and a lower profile than Saturday, but Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech puts two unbeaten teams on the field. That game and Liberty at Delaware kick off at 6:00 PM, with Penn State at Northwestern following at 7:00. Put all three in your multiview and the night is covered.
Saturday Early (Avg. Game Rank 4.5)
#2 - Alabama (#14) at Mississippi St. (#14), Alabama -6.0, over/under 60.5, 11:00 AM, ABC
#4 - Michigan State (#24) at Wisconsin (#7), Wisconsin -10.0, over/under 43.5, 11:30 AM, BTN
#5 - Michigan (#25) at Minnesota (#17), Michigan -5.5, over/under 43.5, 11:00 AM, FOX
#7 - UCF (#7) at Houston (#41), Houston -11.5, over/under 51.5, 11:00 AM, ESPN2
Three of these games kick off at 11:00 sharp and Michigan State at Wisconsin follows at 11:30, which makes the window a natural four-game multiview. Alabama sits seventh in the AP poll but 14th in the ratings, while Mississippi State is 16th in the AP and 14th here. Two games, Michigan State at Wisconsin and Michigan at Minnesota, share the lowest total of the weekend at 43.5. UCF at Houston has a twist of its own. UCF is rated 7th and Houston 41st, and Houston is still the 11.5-point favorite.
Saturday Afternoon (Avg. Game Rank 5.8)
#1 - Florida (#1) at Missouri (#22), Florida -5.5, over/under 57.5, 2:30 PM, ABC
#5 - Ohio State (#25) at Iowa (#17), Ohio State -14.5, over/under 45.5, 2:30 PM, CBS
#8 - Auburn (#11) at Tennessee (#51), Tennessee -7.0, over/under 54.5, 2:30 PM, ESPN
#9 - Kentucky (#13) at South Carolina (#49), South Carolina -3.0, over/under 54.5, 3:15 PM, SEC Network
The afternoon is deep, with three games at 2:30 and the SEC Network game right behind at 3:15. The lines, the ratings and the AP Poll see a few of these differently. Ohio State is fifth in the AP and 25th in the ratings, and the 14.5-point favorite at Iowa, which is 14th in the AP and 17th in the ratings. Auburn, rated 11th, is a 7-point underdog at 51st-rated Tennessee, which is 17th in the AP.
Saturday Evening (Avg. Game Rank 11.2)
#3 - Miami (FL) (#3) at Clemson (#35), Miami (FL) -16.5, over/under 47.5, 6:30 PM, ABC
#12 - Washington (#66) at USC (#17), USC -8.5, over/under 58.5, 6:30 PM, NBC
#14 - BYU (#4) at TCU (#86), BYU -6.5, over/under 47.5, 6:00 PM, ESPN
#16 - Utah State (#66) at Boise State (#22), Boise State -18.5, over/under 51.5, 6:30 PM, CBSSN
Miami (#3) and BYU (#4) are the two highest-rated teams in this window, and both are on the road. Miami is also third in the AP poll, the two lists in close agreement, while BYU is 10th there. Boise State carries the biggest line of the evening at 18.5, just ahead of Miami’s 16.5 at Clemson.
Saturday After Dark (Avg. Game Rank 29.0)
#18 - Cincinnati (#10) at Arizona (#86), Arizona -6.5, over/under 56.5, 10:00 PM, FOX
#25 - Baylor (#41) at Arizona State (#86), Arizona State -3.5, over/under 49.5, 9:30 PM, ESPN
#34 - San Jose State (#79) at Hawaii (#105), Hawaii -3.0, over/under 51.5, 10:59 PM, MW+
#39 - Fresno State (#55) at Washington St. (#109), Washington St. -1.5, over/under 45.5, 8:30 PM, USA Net
This is the lowest-rated window of the weekend, but it has its own curiosities. Cincinnati sits at #10 and Arizona at #86, and the line still makes Arizona the 6.5-point favorite. Fresno State at Washington State carries one of the two closest lines of the weekend at 1.5. San Jose State at Hawaii kicks off at 10:59 PM, the last start on this list.
By the Numbers
22 teams are still unbeaten. Four of them play each other in two head-to-head games, Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech on Friday and Alabama at Mississippi State on Saturday, so two unbeaten teams will lose their zero by Saturday afternoon.
The biggest line of the weekend is 25.5, Georgia over Vanderbilt. After last weekend I said this would be Georgia’s first real test, and with a line that size it may not be much of one. Georgia is second in the AP poll and 38th in the ratings, and Vanderbilt is rated 27th.
The closest lines are 1.5, in Fresno State at Washington State and Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina.
The highest totals are 62.5, in Oregon State at Colorado State and Purdue at Illinois. The lowest are 43.5, in Michigan State at Wisconsin, Michigan at Minnesota, and Bowling Green at Miami (OH).
Alabama, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Texas and UCLA have each won four straight, the longest active streaks on the board. Alabama and Mississippi State play each other, so one of those streaks ends Saturday.
Sleeper of the Week
Pittsburgh (#21) at Virginia Tech (#66), Virginia Tech -2.5, over/under 54.5, Friday 6:00 PM, ESPN
This game sits 15th on the weekend’s board with a line of just 2.5, which is how a good one slips past people. Both teams are unbeaten and both have won three in a row, so a streak and an unbeaten record are on the line Friday night. Pittsburgh is rated 21st and Virginia Tech 66th, and the oddsmakers still have the Hokies as the home favorite. Neither team is ranked in the AP poll.
Storyline to Watch
Alabama (#14) at Mississippi St. (#14), Alabama -6.0, over/under 60.5, Saturday 11:00 AM, ABC
Two unbeaten teams, tied at 14th in the ratings, each carrying a four-game win streak into Starkville. One of those streaks ends Saturday. Their only common opponent so far is South Carolina, which lost to Alabama 49-18 and to Mississippi State 41-34, a 31-point margin against a 7-point one. The AP poll has Alabama seventh and Mississippi State 16th, and the line has the Crimson Tide by 6.0.
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Written by Bob Sloop